Metals
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 43.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $402.78
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-02
80/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.7%
- P75
- +7.2%
- Median
- +4.4%
- P25
- +0.2%
- P10
- -2.6%
87% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.9%
- P75
- +5.8%
- Median
- +3.3%
- P25
- -0.7%
- P10
- -3.6%
Annualized scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with three-year convergence toward today's fair-value distribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.18%
- Expected excess
- +0.2%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year expected edge is the modeled median return minus the current DGS1 investment-basis hurdle; it is not guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $402.78 | +4.4% |
| SLV Silver | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $59.07 | +4.4% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $15.98 | +4.4% |
| CPER Copper | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $39.53 | +4.4% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $25.61 | +4.4% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $97.63 | +4.4% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $64.88 | +4.4% |