Energy
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 32.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 108.0
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- Last close
- $141.15
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-02
80/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +9.2%
- P25
- +5.0%
- P10
- +2.2%
94% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.4%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +1.2%
Annualized scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with three-year convergence toward today's fair-value distribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.18%
- Expected excess
- +5.0%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year expected edge is the modeled median return minus the current DGS1 investment-basis hurdle; it is not guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO US Crude Oil | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $141.15 | +9.2% |
| BNO Brent Crude Oil | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $55.74 | +9.2% |
| UNG Natural Gas | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $10.75 | +9.2% |
| XLE US Energy Sector | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $65.10 | +9.2% |
| XOP Oil and Gas Producers | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $193.16 | +9.2% |