Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 0–280 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 110.0
- Upside to median
- +10.0%
- Last close
- $2,388.32
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +49.0%
- P75
- +34.0%
- Median
- +11.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -13.5%
78% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +31.3%
- P75
- +24.2%
- Median
- +11.7%
- P25
- +5.0%
- P10
- -7.2%
Annualized scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with three-year convergence toward today's fair-value distribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.18%
- Expected excess
- +7.3%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year expected edge is the modeled median return minus the current DGS1 investment-basis hurdle; it is not guaranteed excess return.