US Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 60.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 40% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- Last close
- $761.78
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-01
86/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
blended economic-output/carry and valuation-convergence scenarios; long-run returns used only as priors
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
annualized multi-year economic-output/carry and partial-valuation-normalization scenarios
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.16%
- Modeled excess
- +2.3%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis one-year hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $761.78 | +6.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | — | — |