Valuation Lens - August 10, 2026
China and emerging markets screen cheapest, while developed Pacific and energy look expensive and U.S. equities remain valuation-stretched.
Valuation Lens - August 10, 2026
China and emerging-market equities lead on value; developed Pacific and energy are most expensive, while fixed income sits near fair value.
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
Detailed valuation dashboard
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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China & Hong Kong Equities
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+1.7 Cheap | +19.0% Fair 119 | +12.0% -20% to +45% | +8.0% Treasury 4.0% | 77% moderate-high |
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Emerging Markets Equities
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+1.1 Somewhat cheap | +9.0% Fair 109 | +9.5% -19% to +39% | +5.5% Treasury 4.0% | 76% moderate-high |
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Japan Equities
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+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +7.5% -14% to +29% | +3.5% Treasury 4.0% | 81% high |
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Metals
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+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +5.0% -20% to +29% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 70% moderate-high |
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Real Estate
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+0.2 Fair | +2.0% Fair 102 | +7.0% -16% to +31% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 69% moderate-high |
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Fixed Income
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-0.1 Fair | 0.0% Fair 100 | +4.7% -3% to +11% | +0.7% Treasury 4.0% | 90% high |
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Crypto
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-0.1 Fair | 0.0% Fair 100 | +7.0% -58% to +88% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 50% moderate |
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Europe Equities
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-0.2 Fair | -1.0% Fair 99 | +7.0% -15% to +31% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
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US Equities
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-1.2 Somewhat expensive | -10.0% Fair 90 | +5.5% -16% to +25% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 89% high |
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Energy
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-1.5 Expensive | -15.0% Fair 85 | -3.0% -31% to +31% | -7.0% Treasury 4.0% | 73% moderate-high |
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Developed Pacific Equities
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-2.0 Expensive | -17.0% Fair 83 | +4.5% -15% to +22% | +0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 72% moderate-high |
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 119 Valuation +1.7 Cheap Fair-value gap +19.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +8.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Broad-China multiples remain comparatively modest while expected earnings growth is double digit.
- Low price-to-book provides a second valuation anchor alongside earnings.
- Policy, governance, property-sector and geopolitical uncertainty justify a wider required risk premium.
- Regional benchmarks contain materially different sector and state-ownership mixes.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 56.93 | 119 | +1.7 · Cheap | +12.0% |
Weighted current-value ensemble combining broad-China earnings/book multiples, forward earnings growth and elevated regional risk-premium scenarios; recent price path excluded.
Limitations: Forward-growth estimates are institutional forecasts rather than guaranteed realized fundamentals.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · J.P. Morgan Private Bank
2 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 109 Valuation +1.1 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +9.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 76% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Earnings growth and profitability are strong relative to the starting earnings multiple.
- Broad country diversification reduces dependence on a single national valuation regime.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 60.33 | 109 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +9.5% |
Weighted broad-EM ensemble combining current P/E, P/B, profitability, earnings growth and global discount-rate/risk-premium scenarios; recent price path excluded.
Limitations: VWO excludes some developed classifications and cannot perfectly represent every supplied emerging-market subsegment.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: Vanguard
3 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Positive expected earnings growth and shareholder distributions support fair value.
- Corporate profitability and governance improvement can sustain a higher justified multiple than older historical regimes.
- Current multiples are no longer deeply discounted.
- Currency translation and domestic-rate normalization can change foreign-investor realized returns.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 96.05 | 103 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
Weighted current-value ensemble combining broad-Japan earnings/book multiples, forward earnings growth, distributions and discount-rate scenarios; recent price path excluded.
Limitations: Currency-sensitive ETF valuation is only a proxy for underlying local-equity economics.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · Goldman Sachs Asset Management
4 Metals GLD · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 70% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank and aggregate investment demand support gold's economic scarcity premium.
- A weaker U.S. dollar regime can improve non-dollar demand and metal pricing.
- High real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.
- Industrial metals and miners have distinct supply-demand and operating leverage that GLD cannot represent directly.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 402.54 | 103 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
Gold-led multi-anchor current-value ensemble using real yields, official/investment demand and broader metals uncertainty; GLD is the representative benchmark.
Limitations: GLD is the representative benchmark, while the supplied asset class also includes silver, platinum, copper and mining equities; cross-metal dispersion is substantial.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: World Gold Council
5 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 69% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- FFO and NOI growth remain supportive at the industry level.
- High occupancy and long debt maturity profiles support cash-flow resilience.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 97.11 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
REIT current-value ensemble using industry FFO/NOI/occupancy fundamentals and Treasury discount-rate scenarios, with wider dispersion because broad NAV/AFFO valuation is incomplete.
Limitations: A verified broad-market current NAV discount and AFFO multiple were not available from the structured input; the fair-value distribution is therefore wider.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: Nareit
6 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 100 Valuation -0.1 Fair Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.7% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 90% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
- Starting yield provides a substantial carry anchor close to or above the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Moderate duration creates upside if justified yields fall.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.15 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.7% |
Yield/spread/duration current-value ensemble anchored to BND starting yield, Treasury curve, duration and credit-spread scenarios; carry kept separate from current fair value.
Limitations: The supplied IG/HY OAS series has only short history in this data layer, so spread-regime comparisons are less robust.; Latest recent-price date 2026-08-07 does not match benchmark snapshot date 2026-08-10.; Only 19 valid recent sessions were available; up to 20 are retained.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: Vanguard
7 Crypto ETH-USD · Median fair value 100 Valuation -0.1 Fair Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 50% moderate
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Staking creates a native economic yield and locks a material share of supply.
- Protocol fee burning links network usage to supply economics.
- No universally accepted intrinsic-value model exists for Ethereum or the broader crypto asset class.
- Native staking yield is below the current one-year Treasury hurdle and network-use assumptions can change rapidly.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH-USDEthereum | direct | 1,877.8 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +7.0% |
Very-wide Ethereum current-value ensemble using staking economics, issuance/burn mechanism and risk-free opportunity cost; no assumption of universally accepted intrinsic value.
Limitations: No reliable current MVRV/realized-value series was supplied or verified for this run; the fair-value range is intentionally very wide.; The upstream historical calibration benchmark is BTC-USD as a proxy, while ETH-USD is the exact supplied representative price benchmark.; Insufficient completed historical 12-month outcomes for an auditable Treasury-beat base rate.
Sources: ethereum.org · beaconcha.in
8 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 99 Valuation -0.2 Fair Fair-value gap -1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Moderate earnings multiples and positive earnings growth support near-fair current value.
- Regional diversification provides multiple sector and country valuation anchors.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.26 | 99 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
Weighted Europe ensemble combining current earnings/book multiples, earnings growth and current risk-free opportunity cost; recent price path excluded.
Limitations: Portfolio-level valuation characteristics can mask large country and sector dispersion.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: Vanguard
9 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 90 Valuation -1.2 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -10.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 89% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Strong forward EPS growth partly offsets the elevated starting multiple.
- Current earnings growth and cash-flow capacity support non-zero fair-value upside in bullish scenarios.
- CAPE remains near the extreme upper tail of its long history.
- High real and nominal Treasury yields constrain justified equity multiples.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 773.03 | 90 | -1.2 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value ensemble combining forward S&P 500 fundamentals, CAPE history and current real-rate discounting; recent price path excluded.
Limitations: Shiller earnings are aging and the current/revised workbook is not a true point-in-time publication-vintage reconstruction.; Return calibration current regime is outside historical feature support; no conditional Treasury-beat probability is published.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors · Robert J. Shiller / Shiller Data
10 Energy USO · Median fair value 85 Valuation -1.5 Expensive Fair-value gap -15.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -7.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 73% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current crude pricing remains high enough to support producer cash generation in favorable scenarios.
- USO provides a direct supplied benchmark for WTI-linked futures exposure.
- EIA's July forecast anticipates lower Brent prices as inventories rebuild.
- Futures roll, collateral yield and curve shape can cause ETF returns to differ from spot crude moves.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 125.92 | 85 | -1.5 · Expensive | -3.0% |
Commodity current-value ensemble using current crude economics, EIA supply-demand price scenarios and futures-basis considerations; recent price direction excluded.
Limitations: Brent forecasts are economic oil-market anchors, not direct USO NAV targets; WTI/Brent basis and futures-curve effects widen the distribution.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration · USCF · U.S. Energy Information Administration
11 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 83 Valuation -2.0 Expensive Fair-value gap -17.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 72% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A relatively high income yield cushions the expected-return profile.
- Financials and materials exposure can benefit from resilient nominal growth and commodity economics.
- Current broad-Australia valuation is elevated versus a long historical forward-P/E average.
- The representative benchmark is concentrated in financials and materials, limiting diversification of valuation anchors.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 30.05 | 83 | -2.0 · Expensive | +4.5% |
Australia-heavy developed-Pacific ensemble combining current EWA valuation, long-run Australian forward-multiple context, income yield and sector-concentration adjustments; recent price path excluded.
Limitations: EWA is used as the supplied representative benchmark, so this asset-class model is Australia-heavy rather than a full developed-Pacific market-cap composite.; Only the auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate is usable; no publication-grade conditional probability is available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · BetaShares
Valuation instruments 11
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Broad-China multiples remain comparatively modest while expected earnings growth is double digit.
- Low price-to-book provides a second valuation anchor alongside earnings.
- Policy, governance, property-sector and geopolitical uncertainty justify a wider required risk premium.
- Regional benchmarks contain materially different sector and state-ownership mixes.
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Earnings growth and profitability are strong relative to the starting earnings multiple.
- Broad country diversification reduces dependence on a single national valuation regime.
- Country, currency, governance and commodity exposures vary widely inside the asset class.
- U.S. real yields remain high, raising the opportunity cost for global risk assets.
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Positive expected earnings growth and shareholder distributions support fair value.
- Corporate profitability and governance improvement can sustain a higher justified multiple than older historical regimes.
- Current multiples are no longer deeply discounted.
- Currency translation and domestic-rate normalization can change foreign-investor realized returns.
Metals
GLD · Gold
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank and aggregate investment demand support gold's economic scarcity premium.
- A weaker U.S. dollar regime can improve non-dollar demand and metal pricing.
- High real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.
- Industrial metals and miners have distinct supply-demand and operating leverage that GLD cannot represent directly.
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- FFO and NOI growth remain supportive at the industry level.
- High occupancy and long debt maturity profiles support cash-flow resilience.
- High Treasury yields raise discount rates and financing costs.
- Sector-level NAV premiums/discounts can diverge materially across property types.
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
- Starting yield provides a substantial carry anchor close to or above the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Moderate duration creates upside if justified yields fall.
- Tight investment-grade spreads leave limited cushion for credit repricing.
- Duration can generate mark-to-market losses if rates rise further.
Crypto
ETH-USD · Ethereum
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Staking creates a native economic yield and locks a material share of supply.
- Protocol fee burning links network usage to supply economics.
- No universally accepted intrinsic-value model exists for Ethereum or the broader crypto asset class.
- Native staking yield is below the current one-year Treasury hurdle and network-use assumptions can change rapidly.
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Moderate earnings multiples and positive earnings growth support near-fair current value.
- Regional diversification provides multiple sector and country valuation anchors.
- The valuation discount is not large enough to eliminate cyclical and geopolitical risk.
- A 4.01% one-year Treasury hurdle raises the required compensation for equity risk.
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Strong forward EPS growth partly offsets the elevated starting multiple.
- Current earnings growth and cash-flow capacity support non-zero fair-value upside in bullish scenarios.
- CAPE remains near the extreme upper tail of its long history.
- High real and nominal Treasury yields constrain justified equity multiples.
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Current crude pricing remains high enough to support producer cash generation in favorable scenarios.
- USO provides a direct supplied benchmark for WTI-linked futures exposure.
- EIA's July forecast anticipates lower Brent prices as inventories rebuild.
- Futures roll, collateral yield and curve shape can cause ETF returns to differ from spot crude moves.
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A relatively high income yield cushions the expected-return profile.
- Financials and materials exposure can benefit from resilient nominal growth and commodity economics.
- Current broad-Australia valuation is elevated versus a long historical forward-P/E average.
- The representative benchmark is concentrated in financials and materials, limiting diversification of valuation anchors.
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.