Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 85.0
- Upside to median
- -15.0%
- Last close
- $125.92
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +31.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -18.0%
- P10
- -31.0%
45% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario distribution with partial rather than full valuation normalization and asset-specific income/carry assumptions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- -7.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis one-year hurdle; the modeled expected-return edge is not guaranteed excess return.