China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 22.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 119.0
- Upside to median
- +19.0%
- Last close
- $56.93
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +45.0%
- P75
- +28.0%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario distribution with partial rather than full valuation normalization and asset-specific income/carry assumptions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- +8.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis one-year hurdle; the modeled expected-return edge is not guaranteed excess return.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.7Cheap | 119.0 | $56.93 | +12.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $36.49 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $29.12 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $34.96 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $52.87 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $18.55 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.80 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $26.16 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.77 | — |
| 3110.HK Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity | —Unavailable | — | $30.90 | — |