Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 31.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 109.0
- Upside to median
- +9.0%
- Last close
- $60.33
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-10
76/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +39.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -19.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario distribution with partial rather than full valuation normalization and asset-specific income/carry assumptions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- +5.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis one-year hurdle; the modeled expected-return edge is not guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 109.0 | $60.33 | +9.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $93.76 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $50.14 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $35.19 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $102.18 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $163.12 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $69.73 | — |