US Equities

TSMC beat profit and revenue estimates, forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, said demand remains well above its supply capacity, and said capital spending from 2026 through 2028 will be significantly higher than in the prior three years.

Why it matters here: Strong foundry orders support revenue expectations for the U.S.-listed chip designers and equipment makers in the semiconductor sector, of which TSMC is itself a large holding.

Counterpoint: Semiconductor stocks fell 10% on the week anyway, as financing and competition worries outweighed fundamentals.

Speaking in Bangkok, Warsh said he does not prejudge meetings and that the Fed is no longer in the business of forward guidance; Goldman Sachs economists read the remarks as pointing to an October pause and a final hike in December. Futures implied an 82% probability of no change in October by Friday's close.

Why it matters here: A likely October pause lowers near-term discount-rate risk, which matters most for long-duration growth stocks; S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher after the remarks.

Counterpoint: Stocks still fell sharply on Friday on AI debt fears and oil, and the odds of a December hike rose to 74.3%, so the policy relief was overwhelmed by other forces.

The Federal Reserve said industrial production rose 0.7% in September and grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, with capacity utilisation rising to 76.9%. Machinery and electrical-equipment output each rose 1% or more, while motor vehicles and parts fell 3.0%.

Why it matters here: Firmer output supports industrial earnings and eases fears that high rates are tipping the economy into recession, benefiting the industrial sector and the industrial-heavy blue-chip index.

Counterpoint: Utilities, up 3.5%, drove much of the gain, motor-vehicle output fell, and manufacturing rose only 0.3% on the month.

The Census Bureau's advance estimate put September retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier, with August growth revised up to 1.3%.

Why it matters here: Resilient nominal spending supports third-quarter revenue for retailers and consumer-discretionary companies and for the broad, equal-weighted index.

Counterpoint: With consumer prices up 0.6% on the month, real spending growth was modest, and higher gasoline-station sales inflate the headline.

Brent touched $110 and settled up 3.7% at $109.86 on Friday after a week of attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. gasoline averaged $4.33 a gallon against $3.06 a year earlier.

Why it matters here: Higher energy costs lift inflation expectations, strengthen the case for a December hike and compress valuations of long-duration growth stocks and small caps with more floating-rate debt, while squeezing discretionary household budgets.

Counterpoint: Friday's losses were concentrated in AI-related technology on debt worries rather than energy; energy and utilities rose, and the Dow gained 0.7% on the week.

CXMT's plan to roll out an advanced DRAM design by the end of 2026 set off a global memory-chip rout. U.S. semiconductors struggled all week amid concern about competition from China, and Micron fell 5.6% on Friday.

Why it matters here: Expected Chinese DRAM capacity raises oversupply risk for U.S. memory producers such as Micron and SanDisk and weighs on the semiconductor index.

Counterpoint: CXMT has not disclosed detailed specifications, and its ability to mass-produce the new chips is uncertain.

The BLS said final-demand producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, and 6.3% over 12 months. Final-demand energy jumped 10.8% and goods prices 2.6%; prices excluding foods, energy and trade services rose 5.0% from a year earlier. Truck freight, diesel, gasoline and jet fuel were among the leading contributors.

Why it matters here: Higher diesel, freight and materials costs compress margins for industrials, retailers and the broader equal-weight universe, where pricing power is weaker than among the megacaps.

Counterpoint: Trade-service margins rose 1.4%, indicating that many sellers are passing costs through, which protects earnings.

CoreWeave fell nearly 12% on Friday and about 25% for the week; on Thursday its 2031 bond yield reached 15.78% and its five-year default swap spread rose above 1,000 basis points, while Oracle's spread widened to 282 basis points. The Nasdaq fell 2.14% to 26,140.03 and the S&P 500 1.09% to 7,659.44, the semiconductor ETF lost 10% on the week, and all but seven of the S&P 500's 75 technology stocks fell.

Why it matters here: Doubts about financing the AI build-out raise the risk premium on the megacaps that drive most U.S. earnings growth; the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average as technology and communication services led the losses.

Counterpoint: CoreWeave's backlog exceeds $100 billion, mostly with investment-grade customers, and the coming hyperscaler earnings could reaffirm AI demand and reverse the sell-off.

Consumer prices rose 3.7% over 12 months in September, above the 3.6% expected, with core inflation rising to 2.6% from 2.4%. A specialist publisher reported that the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 7,718.94 and the Nasdaq 1.9% on October 14, the S&P 500's worst day since July.

Why it matters here: Rising inflation raises discount rates and the odds of more Fed hikes, compressing equity multiples — especially for growth stocks and rate-sensitive small caps.

Counterpoint: Core inflation of 2.6% remains moderate, and earnings expectations held up well enough that the Dow finished the week higher.