Last close
$67.19
Both lenses score −3 to +3, in different senses: on Market Lens, +3 is strongly supportive conditions; on Valuation Lens, +3 is very cheap against modeled fair value.
Market Lens
- Trend
- Uptrend
- Volatility
- Elevated
- Vs trend
- Overbought
Energy asset-class score
+1.1
Favorable
Brent crude is in an overbought uptrend with elevated volatility and led the class higher on 16 October. Its strongest related force is the Gulf supply shock that took Brent to $109.86, its highest since mid-May, with emergency releases and continued Russian supply as offsets.
Full evidence →Valuation Lens
—Unavailable
- Median fair value
- —market = 100
- 1y modeled return
- —
Brent futures exposure; the backwardated forecast path points to lower spot prices, but roll yield partly offsets that for futures holders. Not modeled separately.
Full distribution →Risk profile
- Annualised volatility
- 37.2%
- Max drawdown
- -34.5%
- 5y return (CAGR)
- 24.8%
TacticalPortfolio eligible
Realized statistics from five years of monthly total returns. Historical risk is context, not a forecast.
Technical
Supporting and opposing conditions
Supportive
- Uptrend with a five-day change of 5.0%
Opposing
- Widest two-hundred-day premium in the class
- Overbought with elevated volatility