Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–260 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–230 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $78,875.36
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +105.0%
- P75
- +55.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- -30.0%
- P10
- -55.0%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +50.0%
- P75
- +28.0%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Three-year annualized scenario model with partial valuation normalization and asset-specific income/growth economics.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- +6.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; the expected-return edge is modeled and not guaranteed.