Valuation Lens - August 24, 2026
Fixed income and China look modestly cheap, while U.S. equities and energy remain expensive against today's modeled fair-value ranges.
Valuation Lens - August 24, 2026
Selective value in bonds and China contrasts with expensive U.S. equities and energy
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
Detailed valuation dashboard
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Fixed Income
View details
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+1.2 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +5.2% -4% to +12% | +1.2% Treasury 4.0% | 91% high |
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China & Hong Kong Equities
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+0.7 Somewhat cheap | +8.0% Fair 108 | +7.5% -30% to +42% | +3.5% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
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Real Estate
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+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +6.5% -20% to +30% | +2.5% Treasury 4.0% | 86% high |
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Europe Equities
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+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +2.0% Fair 102 | +6.5% -16% to +24% | +2.5% Treasury 4.0% | 87% high |
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Crypto
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+0.3 Fair | +5.0% Fair 105 | +10.0% -55% to +105% | +6.0% Treasury 4.0% | 66% moderate-high |
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Japan Equities
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-0.6 Somewhat expensive | -3.0% Fair 97 | +5.0% -18% to +25% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
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Metals
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-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -6.0% Fair 94 | +3.0% -28% to +35% | -1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
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Developed Pacific Equities
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-0.9 Somewhat expensive | -5.0% Fair 95 | +4.0% -19% to +25% | 0.0% Treasury 4.0% | 76% moderate-high |
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Emerging Markets Equities
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-1.6 Expensive | -10.0% Fair 90 | +2.5% -28% to +32% | -1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
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Energy
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-1.7 Expensive | -16.0% Fair 84 | -4.0% -35% to +42% | -8.0% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
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US Equities
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-2.0 Expensive | -12.0% Fair 88 | +2.5% -18% to +18% | -1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 92% high |
1 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 104 Valuation +1.2 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.2% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 91% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Higher government-bond yields provide stronger contractual carry and a better starting income cushion.
- Aggregate-bond fair value benefits if yields normalize modestly from elevated levels.
- Investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads are materially tighter than their 10-year averages, limiting credit valuation support.
- Further rate increases would reduce current bond prices through duration exposure.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.37 | 104 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +5.2% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management · Vanguard
2 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 108 Valuation +0.7 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- China's broad forward P/E is below its long-run valuation average, creating a measurable valuation discount.
- Corporate buybacks and capital-return reforms have increased across China and parts of Asia.
- Near-term earnings growth is subdued, so cheap multiples require eventual improvement in economic output.
- The class spans mainland and Hong Kong exposures with materially different sector mixes and valuation behavior.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 54.93 | 108 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
3 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 86% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- REIT FFO and NOI are growing while leverage remains disciplined, supporting current property cash flows.
- Public REIT valuations remain more responsive to market rates than private appraisal values.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 99.10 | 103 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
4 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 87% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward valuation is close to its historical norm rather than at a major premium.
- Earnings growth remains positive and investment spending provides a medium-term fundamental support.
- Energy and inflation sensitivity can pressure margins and discount rates.
- Fair-value upside is modest because current multiples are already near normal rather than deeply discounted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.61 | 102 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
5 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 105 Valuation +0.3 Fair Fair-value gap +5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 66% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Fidelity's Q3 research found several valuation indicators approaching levels associated with long-term accumulation or capitulation.
- Crypto lacks a universally accepted intrinsic-value framework, so fair-value dispersion is intentionally much wider than for cash-flow assets.
- Positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of non-cash-flow digital assets.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 78,875.36 | 105 | +0.3 · Fair | +10.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.; Crypto has no universally accepted intrinsic-value model; the fair-value distribution is intentionally wide and model reliability is lower.
Sources: Fidelity Digital Assets · Coin Metrics
6 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 97 Valuation -0.6 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Double-digit earnings growth and ongoing shareholder reforms support economic value.
- Forward P/E and price-to-book are above their longer-run valuation averages.
- A richer starting multiple limits the fair-value margin of safety despite constructive fundamentals.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 94.84 | 97 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +5.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
7 Metals GLD · Median fair value 94 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -6.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank and investment demand remain structurally strong, supporting gold's economic scarcity premium.
- A 2.40% 10-year real Treasury yield raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
- High gold prices are already suppressing jewelry volumes, indicating demand sensitivity at elevated valuations.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 426.69 | 94 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +3.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: World Gold Council · World Gold Council
8 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 95 Valuation -0.9 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge 0.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 76% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Regional earnings growth is strong and parts of Asia-Pacific retain valuation discounts to developed-market peers.
- Australia and Singapore do not share one common valuation regime, so the class-level estimate has higher model dispersion.
- Several developed Pacific markets trade above their own historical valuation averages.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 30.06 | 95 | -0.9 · Somewhat expensive | +4.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.; Current Australia-specific forward-multiple evidence was less complete than broader Asia-Pacific and Singapore evidence; regional proxies therefore carry more weight.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
9 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 90 Valuation -1.6 Expensive Fair-value gap -10.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- EM and Asia-Pacific earnings growth remains supported by AI-linked North Asia and improving capital return.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 59.97 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +2.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management · Vanguard · Vanguard · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
10 Energy USO · Median fair value 84 Valuation -1.7 Expensive Fair-value gap -16.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -8.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Near-term supply disruption and low inventories support a scarcity premium in current oil economics.
- EIA expects Brent to fall toward $69/b in 2027 as production recovers and inventories rebuild.
- IEA expects global oil demand to decline in 2026, limiting the durability of disruption-driven prices.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 132.21 | 84 | -1.7 · Expensive | -4.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration · International Energy Agency
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 88 Valuation -2.0 Expensive Fair-value gap -12.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 92% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Strong 2026 earnings growth and positive earnings surprises support current economic output.
- Profit growth remains unusually strong, which partly offsets rich headline multiples.
- Broad U.S. equity valuations are at the extreme high end of Vanguard's historical distribution.
- A 4.74% 10-year Treasury yield raises the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration equities.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 763.47 | 88 | -2.0 · Expensive | +2.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor scenario grid constrained by current fundamentals, historical/peer valuation anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: Fair-value estimates are asset-class scenario distributions anchored to representative benchmarks; they are not security-level price targets.; Recent price history is display/context data only and does not affect valuation, expected return, calibration, or confidence.; No publication-grade calibrated probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passes the upstream/Step 4 hard gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: Vanguard
Valuation instruments 11
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Higher government-bond yields provide stronger contractual carry and a better starting income cushion.
- Aggregate-bond fair value benefits if yields normalize modestly from elevated levels.
- Investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads are materially tighter than their 10-year averages, limiting credit valuation support.
- Further rate increases would reduce current bond prices through duration exposure.
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- China's broad forward P/E is below its long-run valuation average, creating a measurable valuation discount.
- Corporate buybacks and capital-return reforms have increased across China and parts of Asia.
- Near-term earnings growth is subdued, so cheap multiples require eventual improvement in economic output.
- The class spans mainland and Hong Kong exposures with materially different sector mixes and valuation behavior.
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- REIT FFO and NOI are growing while leverage remains disciplined, supporting current property cash flows.
- Public REIT valuations remain more responsive to market rates than private appraisal values.
- The implied cap-rate spread over the 10-year Treasury is not unusually wide at current yields.
- Higher refinancing costs can offset strong property-level income growth.
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Forward valuation is close to its historical norm rather than at a major premium.
- Earnings growth remains positive and investment spending provides a medium-term fundamental support.
- Energy and inflation sensitivity can pressure margins and discount rates.
- Fair-value upside is modest because current multiples are already near normal rather than deeply discounted.
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Fidelity's Q3 research found several valuation indicators approaching levels associated with long-term accumulation or capitulation.
- Crypto lacks a universally accepted intrinsic-value framework, so fair-value dispersion is intentionally much wider than for cash-flow assets.
- Positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of non-cash-flow digital assets.
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Double-digit earnings growth and ongoing shareholder reforms support economic value.
- Forward P/E and price-to-book are above their longer-run valuation averages.
- A richer starting multiple limits the fair-value margin of safety despite constructive fundamentals.
Metals
GLD · Gold
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank and investment demand remain structurally strong, supporting gold's economic scarcity premium.
- A 2.40% 10-year real Treasury yield raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
- High gold prices are already suppressing jewelry volumes, indicating demand sensitivity at elevated valuations.
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Regional earnings growth is strong and parts of Asia-Pacific retain valuation discounts to developed-market peers.
- Australia and Singapore do not share one common valuation regime, so the class-level estimate has higher model dispersion.
- Several developed Pacific markets trade above their own historical valuation averages.
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- EM and Asia-Pacific earnings growth remains supported by AI-linked North Asia and improving capital return.
- Vanguard's model places emerging-market valuations near the top of their historical distribution.
- Vanguard's long-horizon expected return range has fallen to 2%-4% after the rally.
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Near-term supply disruption and low inventories support a scarcity premium in current oil economics.
- EIA expects Brent to fall toward $69/b in 2027 as production recovers and inventories rebuild.
- IEA expects global oil demand to decline in 2026, limiting the durability of disruption-driven prices.
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Strong 2026 earnings growth and positive earnings surprises support current economic output.
- Profit growth remains unusually strong, which partly offsets rich headline multiples.
- Broad U.S. equity valuations are at the extreme high end of Vanguard's historical distribution.
- A 4.74% 10-year Treasury yield raises the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration equities.
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.