Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 40.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $99.10
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-24
86/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year annualized scenario model with partial valuation normalization and asset-specific income/growth economics.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; the expected-return edge is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $99.10 | +6.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $45.33 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $28.18 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $22.05 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $31.45 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $96.76 | — |