Energy
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $134.64
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-21
77/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -14.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
eia_commodity_normalization_and_energy_equity_fundamental_scenarios
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
eia_commodity_normalization_and_energy_equity_fundamental_scenarios
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.99%
- Expected excess
- -3.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred investment-basis annual hurdle; the expected excess is modeled and is not a guaranteed return.