Valuation Lens — August 21, 2026
Emerging markets and China look cheapest; Japan screens richest
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The preferred one-year Treasury hurdle is 3.99%, with the 10-year at 4.69% and the 10-year real yield at 2.35%, keeping discount rates economically important.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.7%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.8Cheap
- Median fair value
- 110.4100.9–118.6
- Upside to median
- +10.4%
- 1y modeled
- +12.0%-20.0% to 48.0%
- vs Treasury
- +8.0%
- +1.3Cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.098.0–113.0
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +11.0%-18.0% to 45.0%
- vs Treasury
- +7.0%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 102.581.5–123.7
- Upside to median
- +2.5%
- 1y modeled
- +10.0%-50.0% to 100.0%
- vs Treasury
- +6.0%
- Real EstateVNQ+0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.393.0–106.9
- Upside to median
- +0.3%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-16.0% to 32.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- Fixed IncomeBND-0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.997.0–102.2
- Upside to median
- -0.1%
- 1y modeled
- +4.8%-2.0% to 11.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.8%
- MetalsGLD-0.5Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.787.0–108.0
- Upside to median
- -3.3%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-28.0% to 42.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.0%
- US EquitiesSPY-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.090.0–104.2
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-15.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- EnergyUSO-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.082.4–107.3
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +1.0%-30.0% to 40.0%
- vs Treasury
- -3.0%
- -1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.689.9–101.7
- Upside to median
- -4.4%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-15.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
- -1.4Expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.288.2–100.4
- Upside to median
- -5.8%
- 1y modeled
- +3.5%-15.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.5%
- -1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.486.4–100.0
- Upside to median
- -6.6%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-18.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.0%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 20.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 79% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 47.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 48.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 54.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 57.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 73.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources19
- 1
- 2MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 3MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 82026 Asia Mid-Year OutlookJ.P. Morgan Private Bank
- 9International equities outlook – April 2026Pitcher Partners
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13Short-Term Energy Outlook — Global oil marketsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 14State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)State Street Global Advisors
- 15Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point breakWorld Gold Council
- 16Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — OutlookWorld Gold Council
- 17BTC MVRV Z-Score ChartGlassnode
- 18Fidelity Digital Assets 2026 Look AheadFidelity Digital Assets
- 19China equities – Weathering market volatilityBank of Singapore
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-08-21_valuation-lens_173300-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.