Crypto
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 47.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.5
- Upside to median
- +2.5%
- Last close
- $77,418.04
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-21
66/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +100.0%
- P75
- +50.0%
- Median
- +10.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -50.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
on_chain_network_and_liquidity_scenarios_with_wide_dispersion
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +40.0%
- Median
- +15.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
on_chain_network_and_liquidity_scenarios_with_wide_dispersion
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.99%
- Expected excess
- +6.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred investment-basis annual hurdle; the expected excess is modeled and is not a guaranteed return.