Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 37.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 107.0
- Upside to median
- +7.0%
- Last close
- $72,731.27
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +39.9%
- P75
- +25.7%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -15.9%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.2%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +11.0%
- P25
- +7.0%
- P10
- +3.7%
Three-year annualized scenario model with slower valuation convergence and reduced short-horizon noise.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.00%
- Expected excess
- +8.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD Bitcoin | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $72,731.27 | +12.0% |
| ETH-USD Ethereum | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $2,319.24 | +12.0% |
| SOL-USD Solana | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $87.50 | +12.0% |
| XRP-USD XRP | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $1.24 | +12.0% |
| BNB-USD BNB | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $651.93 | +12.0% |
| ADA-USD Cardano | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $0.20 | +12.0% |