Valuation Lens — August 20, 2026
China and emerging markets lead value; real estate and energy lag
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury yields 4.00% on an investment basis, while real yields remain above 2%, keeping the discount-rate hurdle meaningful across risk assets.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.7%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.8Cheap
- Median fair value
- 109.5101.0–118.2
- Upside to median
- +9.5%
- 1y modeled
- +10.4%-1.2% to 21.6%
- vs Treasury
- +6.4%
- +1.3Cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.098.0–111.4
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-0.2% to 18.0%
- vs Treasury
- +5.0%
- +1.3Cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.799.0–114.3
- Upside to median
- +6.7%
- 1y modeled
- +10.6%-0.4% to 20.9%
- vs Treasury
- +6.6%
- +1.3Cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.5100.0–112.9
- Upside to median
- +6.5%
- 1y modeled
- +9.4%0.7% to 17.8%
- vs Treasury
- +5.4%
- MetalsGLD+0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.092.0–115.1
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.8%-8.7% to 19.2%
- vs Treasury
- +0.8%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 107.090.0–126.5
- Upside to median
- +7.0%
- 1y modeled
- +12.0%-15.9% to 39.9%
- vs Treasury
- +8.0%
- +0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.095.0–106.5
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.8%-1.5% to 14.2%
- vs Treasury
- +2.8%
- Fixed IncomeBND-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.098.0–102.3
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.6%1.8% to 7.8%
- vs Treasury
- +0.6%
- US EquitiesSPY-0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 96.991.0–104.6
- Upside to median
- -3.1%
- 1y modeled
- +7.2%-1.4% to 17.7%
- vs Treasury
- +3.2%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.092.0–102.2
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.9%-2.7% to 13.8%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- EnergyXLE-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.090.0–102.6
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.3%-6.2% to 16.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.7%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 20.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 79% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 34.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 37.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 47.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 51.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 61.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 61.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources18
- 1
- 2
- 3iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJiShares
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | VGKVanguard
- 8
- 9
- 10Vanguard Real Estate ETF | VNQVanguard
- 11
- 12Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 13Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 14A Market in RepairGlassnode
- 15Advanced Research and Analytical MetricsCoin Metrics
- 16
- 17Market Trends: August 2026BetaShares
- 182026 Midyear Global Investment OutlookBlackRock Investment Institute
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-08-20_valuation-lens_175300-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.