Energy
Today’s price sits at the 66.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 89.2
- Upside to median
- -10.8%
- Last close
- $126.60
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.3%
- P75
- +10.9%
- Median
- -1.7%
- P25
- -12.2%
- P10
- -23.9%
46% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.9%
- P75
- +5.8%
- Median
- +0.1%
- P25
- -5.6%
- P10
- -10.2%
Annualized three-year scenario model using sustainable carry/growth plus partial convergence toward current fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.97%
- Expected excess
- -5.7%
- Basis
- direct
Uses DGS1 investment-basis yield as the annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not a guaranteed return.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO US Crude Oil | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 89.2 | $126.60 | -1.7% |
| BNO Brent Crude Oil | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 89.2 | $50.64 | -1.7% |
| UNG Natural Gas | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 89.2 | $9.92 | -1.7% |
| XLE US Energy Sector | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 89.2 | $61.91 | -1.7% |
| XOP Oil and Gas Producers | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 89.2 | $180.49 | -1.7% |