Energy
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 63.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.8
- Upside to median
- -6.2%
- Last close
- $126.60
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-14
78/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.7%
- P75
- +7.6%
- Median
- -3.2%
- P25
- -14.3%
- P10
- -28.1%
39% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.6%
- P75
- +3.2%
- Median
- -2.1%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -15.9%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using sustainable growth or carry, partial valuation normalization, and asset-specific uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.97%
- Expected excess
- -7.2%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled, not guaranteed.
Instruments
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO US Crude Oil | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | $126.60 | -3.2% |
| BNO Brent Crude Oil | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | $50.64 | -3.2% |
| UNG Natural Gas | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | $9.92 | -3.2% |
| XLE US Energy Sector | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | $61.91 | -3.2% |
| XOP Oil and Gas Producers | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | $180.49 | -3.2% |