Valuation Lens — August 14, 2026
China and emerging markets lead value; U.S. premiums persist
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury yield is the preferred current annual hurdle, with real yields remaining a material discount-rate input across valuation models.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.6%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.7Cheap
- Median fair value
- 114.8101.4–123.3
- Upside to median
- +14.8%
- 1y modeled
- +13.0%-10.5% to 33.5%
- vs Treasury
- +9.0%
- +1.7Cheap
- Median fair value
- 117.8104.5–125.8
- Upside to median
- +17.8%
- 1y modeled
- +13.4%-9.9% to 33.8%
- vs Treasury
- +9.4%
- +0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.297.3–108.8
- Upside to median
- +3.2%
- 1y modeled
- +8.6%-6.6% to 23.4%
- vs Treasury
- +4.6%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.7Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.584.6–122.5
- Upside to median
- +3.5%
- 1y modeled
- +3.9%-36.2% to 44.4%
- vs Treasury
- -0.1%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.996.5–108.1
- Upside to median
- +1.8%
- 1y modeled
- +8.3%-6.2% to 22.5%
- vs Treasury
- +4.3%
- MetalsGLD+0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.690.1–109.3
- Upside to median
- +1.6%
- 1y modeled
- +1.5%-18.6% to 20.9%
- vs Treasury
- -2.5%
- Fixed IncomeBND0.0Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.696.7–102.4
- Upside to median
- -0.4%
- 1y modeled
- +4.4%-1.0% to 10.2%
- vs Treasury
- +0.4%
- -0.6Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.291.3–102.8
- Upside to median
- -2.8%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-7.7% to 22.3%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- EnergyUSO-0.8Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.884.5–101.6
- Upside to median
- -6.2%
- 1y modeled
- -3.2%-28.1% to 21.7%
- vs Treasury
- -7.2%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.587.6–101.9
- Upside to median
- -5.5%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-8.3% to 20.9%
- vs Treasury
- +2.0%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.685.6–98.5
- Upside to median
- -7.4%
- 1y modeled
- +7.2%-6.9% to 20.5%
- vs Treasury
- +3.2%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 21.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 21.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 35.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 38.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 41.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 50.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 40% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 63.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 66.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources16
- 1State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)State Street Global Advisors
- 2MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 3MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8Vanguard Real Estate ETFVanguard
- 9Vanguard Total Bond Market ETFVanguard
- 10Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 11Energy PricesU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 12Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 13Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026World Gold Council
- 14The Week Onchain — Week 27, 2026Glassnode
- 15The Week Onchain — Week 25, 2026Glassnode
- 16
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-08-14_valuation-lens_193600-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.