Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 38.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 103.5
- Upside to median
- +3.5%
- Last close
- $62,849.64
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +44.4%
- P75
- +21.8%
- Median
- +3.9%
- P25
- -13.2%
- P10
- -36.2%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +33.2%
- P75
- +18.2%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -2.9%
- P10
- -16.4%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using sustainable growth or carry, partial valuation normalization, and asset-specific uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.97%
- Expected excess
- -0.1%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled, not guaranteed.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD Bitcoin | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | $62,849.64 | +3.9% |
| ETH-USD Ethereum | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | $1,877.75 | +3.9% |
| SOL-USD Solana | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | $75.13 | +3.9% |
| XRP-USD XRP | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | $1.00 | +3.9% |
| BNB-USD BNB | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | $605.98 | +3.9% |
| ADA-USD Cardano | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | $0.18 | +3.9% |