Valuation Lens - August 14, 2026
China and emerging markets screen cheapest, while U.S. equities and real estate carry the largest premiums to modeled current fair value.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - August 14, 2026
China and emerging markets lead value; U.S. premiums persist
As of August 14, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
72 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 3.97%
Research cutoff · Aug 14, 2026 · 23:36 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
3.97%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.7 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
U.S. Equities
-1.7 · Expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+9.4%
Emerging Mkts
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.7
Cheap
Fair gap +14.8% · Edge +9.0%
Emerging Mkts
+1.7
Cheap
Fair gap +17.8% · Edge +9.4%
Japan Equities
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +3.2% · Edge +4.6%
Crypto
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +3.5% · Edge -0.1%
Europe Equities
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +1.8% · Edge +4.3%
Metals
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +1.6% · Edge -2.5%
Fixed Income
0.0
Fair
Fair gap -0.4% · Edge +0.4%
Developed Pacific
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -2.8% · Edge +3.5%
Energy
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -6.2% · Edge -7.2%
Real Estate
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -5.5% · Edge +2.0%
U.S. Equities
-1.7
Expensive
Fair gap -7.4% · Edge +3.2%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 50–160
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.7 Cheap | +14.8% Fair 115 | +13.0% -11% to +34% | +9.0% Treasury 4.0% | 77% moderate-high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
+1.7 Cheap | +17.8% Fair 118 | +13.4% -10% to +34% | +9.4% Treasury 4.0% | 77% moderate-high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +3.2% Fair 103 | +8.6% -7% to +23% | +4.6% Treasury 4.0% | 81% high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.7 Somewhat cheap | +3.5% Fair 104 | +3.9% -36% to +44% | -0.1% Treasury 4.0% | 62% moderate |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +1.8% Fair 102 | +8.3% -6% to +23% | +4.3% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +1.6% Fair 102 | +1.5% -19% to +21% | -2.5% Treasury 4.0% | 73% moderate-high |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
0.0 Fair | -0.4% Fair 100 | +4.4% -1% to +10% | +0.4% Treasury 4.0% | 89% high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
-0.6 Somewhat expensive | -2.8% Fair 97 | +7.5% -8% to +22% | +3.5% Treasury 4.0% | 78% moderate-high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
-0.8 Somewhat expensive | -6.2% Fair 94 | -3.2% -28% to +22% | -7.2% Treasury 4.0% | 78% moderate-high |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
-1.0 Somewhat expensive | -5.5% Fair 95 | +6.0% -8% to +21% | +2.0% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-1.7 Expensive | -7.4% Fair 93 | +7.2% -7% to +21% | +3.2% Treasury 4.0% | 89% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 115 Valuation +1.7 Cheap Fair-value gap +14.8% vs market 100 Expected edge +9.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 115
P25–P75 101–123
MCHI China Broad Market
Last 54.63 · 2026-08-14
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.2
P1086.7
P25101.4
Median114.8
Mean112.8
P75123.3
P90130.8
P95137.8
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+13.0%
P10 -10.5% · P25 +2.2% · P75 +21.5% · P90 +33.5%
3Y annualized+9.7%
P10 -3.8% · P25 +3.9% · P75 +13.8% · P90 +21.1%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations173
Effective sample19.9
History2011-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- The forward earnings multiple is low relative to developed-market peers.
- Dividend income provides a tangible component of current economic value.
Fair-value risks
- Low multiples may partly reflect structurally weaker growth or profitability expectations.
- Asset-level fair value is a proxy across heterogeneous mainland, Hong Kong, technology, and consumer exposures.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor92
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor105
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor115
Current-fundamental anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor122
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor130
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 54.63 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| FXIChina Large-Cap | proxy | 34.89 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 27.01 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 34.73 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| CQQQChina Technology Sector | proxy | 50.88 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 17.59 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 22.39 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 25.88 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.682 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 30.82 | 115 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.
Sources: MSCI
2 Emerging Markets Equities EMXC · Median fair value 118 Valuation +1.7 Cheap Fair-value gap +17.8% vs market 100 Expected edge +9.4% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 118
P25–P75 104–126
EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China
Last 97.29 · 2026-08-14
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0586.2
P1090.1
P25104.5
Median117.8
Mean115.6
P75125.8
P90132.8
P95140.3
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+13.4%
P10 -9.9% · P25 +2.7% · P75 +21.5% · P90 +33.8%
3Y annualized+10.4%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +4.7% · P75 +14.4% · P90 +21.6%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations245
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- The ex-China forward earnings multiple provides a low current valuation anchor.
- Diversified country exposure broadens the economic drivers underlying the benchmark.
Fair-value risks
- Price-to-book valuation is less compelling than the low forward P/E signal.
- Country, currency, and sector heterogeneity widen the fair-value range.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor96
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor108
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor118
Current-fundamental anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor124
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor132
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | reference only | 60.11 | 118 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.4% |
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | direct | 97.29 | 118 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.4% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 49.78 | 118 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.4% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 33.93 | 118 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.4% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 107.07 | 118 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.4% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 179.74 | 118 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.4% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 67.53 | 118 | +1.7 · Cheap | +13.4% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.
Sources: MSCI
3 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.2% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.6% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 97–109
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 98.21 · 2026-08-14
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0588.2
P1092.4
P2597.3
Median103.2
Mean103.6
P75108.8
P90112.8
P95116.8
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+8.6%
P10 -6.6% · P25 +1.2% · P75 +13.8% · P90 +23.4%
3Y annualized+6.8%
P10 -1.9% · P25 +3.1% · P75 +10.1% · P90 +15.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations352
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Forward valuation is materially below trailing valuation, supporting a less demanding current earnings anchor.
- Dividend income and book value provide independent valuation support.
Fair-value risks
- Current valuation leaves less margin of safety if earnings normalization disappoints.
- Asset-class estimates are proxies for currency-hedged, small-cap, value, and broad-market subsegments.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor94
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor100
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor104
Current-fundamental anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor108
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor112
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 98.21 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.6% |
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 182.17 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.6% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 110.28 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.6% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 48.02 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.6% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 105.23 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.6% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.
Sources: MSCI
4 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.7 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.5% vs market 100 Expected edge -0.1% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 62% moderate
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 85–123
BTC-USD Bitcoin
Last 62,849.64 · 2026-08-14
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0556.1
P1067.5
P2584.6
Median103.5
Mean107.8
P75122.5
P90139.9
P95152.3
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+3.9%
P10 -36.2% · P25 -13.2% · P75 +21.8% · P90 +44.4%
3Y annualized+8.5%
P10 -16.4% · P25 -2.9% · P75 +18.2% · P90 +33.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Bitcoin trades below Glassnode's true-market-mean valuation reference.
- Network realized value provides an independent lower valuation anchor.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor85
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor100
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 15%
Current-fundamental anchor122
Current-fundamental anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 30%
Discount-rate anchor140
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor75
Asset-specific anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 62,849.64 | 104 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +3.9% |
| ETH-USDEthereum | proxy | 1,877.75 | 104 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +3.9% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 75.13 | 104 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +3.9% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 0.99710 | 104 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +3.9% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 605.98 | 104 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +3.9% |
| ADA-USDCardano | proxy | 0.17932 | 104 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +3.9% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; Completed historical 12-month outcomes are insufficient for a publication-grade Treasury-beat probability.; Fair-value dispersion is intentionally wide because non-contractual-value anchors are model-sensitive.
5 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.8% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.3% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 97–108
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 92.37 · 2026-08-14
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0585.1
P1090.7
P2596.5
Median101.8
Mean102.0
P75108.1
P90112.3
P95116.1
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+8.3%
P10 -6.2% · P25 +1.8% · P75 +13.7% · P90 +22.5%
3Y annualized+7.1%
P10 -0.9% · P25 +3.1% · P75 +10.5% · P90 +15.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations245
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Forward valuation is moderate relative to U.S. large-cap valuation.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful component of current economic value.
Fair-value risks
- Higher global discount rates limit justified multiple expansion.
- Regional sector mix and country dispersion reduce precision of a single broad-market fair-value estimate.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor92
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor98
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor103
Current-fundamental anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor107
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor110
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.37 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +8.3% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 71.99 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +8.3% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 48.26 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +8.3% |
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 44.16 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +8.3% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 47.47 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +8.3% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 63.27 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +8.3% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.
Sources: MSCI
6 Metals GLD · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.6% vs market 100 Expected edge -2.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 73% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 90–109
GLD Gold
Last 401.48 · 2026-08-14
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0577.2
P1085.6
P2590.1
Median101.6
Mean101.8
P75109.3
P90118.2
P95122.3
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+1.5%
P10 -18.6% · P25 -7.6% · P75 +10.2% · P90 +20.9%
3Y annualized+1.2%
P10 -10.2% · P25 -4.3% · P75 +5.7% · P90 +12.3%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations249
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.39 %
Current real-rate anchor
Fair-value drivers
- Gold demand remained resilient in the first half of 2026.
- Central-bank reserve intentions provide structural demand support.
Fair-value risks
- High real Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
- Gold, silver, platinum, base metals, and miners have distinct economic anchors, widening asset-class dispersion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor90
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor97
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor102
Current-fundamental anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor108
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor112
Asset-specific anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 401.48 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +1.5% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 58.48 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +1.5% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 15.87 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +1.5% |
| CPERCopper | proxy | 40.01 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +1.5% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.42 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +1.5% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 89.97 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +1.5% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 62.04 | 102 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +1.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.; Fair-value dispersion is intentionally wide because non-contractual-value anchors are model-sensitive.
Sources: World Gold Council · World Gold Council
7 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 100 Valuation 0.0 Fair Fair-value gap -0.4% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.4% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 89% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 97–102
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 72.31 · 2026-08-14
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0593.1
P1096.0
P2596.7
Median99.6
Mean100.2
P75102.4
P90104.8
P95106.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.4%
P10 -1.0% · P25 +2.1% · P75 +7.0% · P90 +10.2%
3Y annualized+4.5%
P10 +0.8% · P25 +2.9% · P75 +6.1% · P90 +8.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations220
Effective sample20.8
History2007-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- BND's starting SEC yield provides substantial contractual carry.
- Moderate portfolio duration allows meaningful upside if justified yields normalize lower.
Fair-value risks
- The current 1Y Treasury hurdle is competitive with the broad bond fund's starting yield.
- Credit-spread history is shorter in the structured input, reducing long-cycle spread confidence.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor96
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor99
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor100
Current-fundamental anchor using yield spread economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor102
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor104
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.31 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +4.4% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.04 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +4.4% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 93.04 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +4.4% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.00 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +4.4% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 106.99 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +4.4% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 106.12 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +4.4% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.71 | 100 | 0.0 · Fair | +4.4% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.; Structured IG/HY spread histories are shorter than the full macro history.
Sources: Vanguard
8 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 97 Valuation -0.6 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -2.8% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 78% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 91–103
EWA Australia Broad Market
Last 29.65 · 2026-08-14
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.2
P1086.4
P2591.3
Median97.2
Mean97.6
P75102.8
P90106.8
P95110.8
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.5%
P10 -7.7% · P25 +0.1% · P75 +12.7% · P90 +22.3%
3Y annualized+6.8%
P10 -2.0% · P25 +2.7% · P75 +10.1% · P90 +15.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations352
Effective sample44.3
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A 3.24% regional dividend yield supports the cash-return component of fair value.
- Forward earnings valuation remains within a defensible developed-market range.
Fair-value risks
- The benchmark spans economies with materially different rate, commodity, and sector exposures.
- Fair-value dispersion remains meaningful because Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand have different earnings structures.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor88
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor94
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor98
Current-fundamental anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor102
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor106
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 29.65 | 97 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +7.5% |
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | proxy | 33.68 | 97 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +7.5% |
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 47.34 | 97 | -0.6 · Somewhat expensive | +7.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.
Sources: MSCI
9 Energy USO · Median fair value 94 Valuation -0.8 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -6.2% vs market 100 Expected edge -7.2% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 78% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 94
P25–P75 85–102
USO US Crude Oil
Last 126.60 · 2026-08-14
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0571.7
P1077.6
P2584.5
Median93.8
Mean94.6
P75101.6
P90110.3
P95114.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year-3.2%
P10 -28.1% · P25 -14.3% · P75 +7.6% · P90 +21.7%
3Y annualized-2.1%
P10 -15.9% · P25 -8.0% · P75 +3.2% · P90 +11.6%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate44%
Raw observations232
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Near-term crude fundamentals remain supported by tight inventories in the EIA outlook.
- Current WTI pricing remains below the EIA's near-term Brent reference, leaving some near-term economic support.
Fair-value risks
- EIA expects materially lower average Brent pricing in 2027 than in the near-term 2026 outlook.
- Commodity fair value is highly sensitive to geopolitical supply disruptions and inventory normalization.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor85
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor90
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor94
Current-fundamental anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor100
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor104
Asset-specific anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 126.60 | 94 | -0.8 · Somewhat expensive | -3.2% |
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 50.64 | 94 | -0.8 · Somewhat expensive | -3.2% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 9.920 | 94 | -0.8 · Somewhat expensive | -3.2% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | proxy | 61.91 | 94 | -0.8 · Somewhat expensive | -3.2% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 180.49 | 94 | -0.8 · Somewhat expensive | -3.2% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.; Fair-value dispersion is intentionally wide because non-contractual-value anchors are model-sensitive.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration · U.S. Energy Information Administration
10 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 95 Valuation -1.0 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -5.5% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 95
P25–P75 88–102
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 98.83 · 2026-08-14
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.1
P1085.0
P2587.6
Median94.5
Mean95.6
P75101.9
P90107.0
P95111.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.0%
P10 -8.3% · P25 -0.5% · P75 +12.1% · P90 +20.9%
3Y annualized+5.9%
P10 -2.7% · P25 +1.7% · P75 +9.9% · P90 +15.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations251
Effective sample26.0
History2004-09-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Portfolio earnings growth supports expanding property cash-flow capacity.
- Distribution yield contributes meaningful current cash return.
Fair-value risks
- The 10Y Treasury yield remains a high financing-cost and cap-rate hurdle for REIT values.
- Broad REIT valuation is an imperfect proxy for mortgage, data-center, residential, and global subsegments.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor86
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor92
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor96
Current-fundamental anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor100
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor104
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 98.83 | 95 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 45.27 | 95 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 28.14 | 95 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 22.12 | 95 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 32.57 | 95 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 95.41 | 95 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; An auditable historical Treasury-beat base rate exists, but no publication-grade conditional calibrated probability is available.
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 93 Valuation -1.7 Expensive Fair-value gap -7.4% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.2% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 89% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 93
P25–P75 86–98
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 776.34 · 2026-08-14
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0574.4
P1077.4
P2585.6
Median92.6
Mean92.6
P7598.5
P90103.9
P95107.2
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.2%
P10 -6.9% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +12.6% · P90 +20.5%
3Y annualized+5.8%
P10 -2.1% · P25 +2.4% · P75 +8.7% · P90 +13.3%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations391
Effective sample31.0
History1993-01-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.39 %
High real discount-rate backdrop
Fair-value drivers
- Forward earnings growth remains strong enough to support above-average justified multiples.
- Current forward earnings provide a higher-quality anchor than trailing price history.
Fair-value risks
- CAPE remains in an extreme historical valuation zone, increasing sensitivity to multiple compression.
- High real Treasury yields raise the discount rate applied to long-duration equity cash flows.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Historical anchor80
Historical anchor using historical analog economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Peer/relative anchor88
Peer/relative anchor using peer relative economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Current-fundamental anchor93
Current-fundamental anchor using fundamental multiple economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Discount-rate anchor98
Discount-rate anchor using discounted cash flow economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Asset-specific anchor104
Asset-specific anchor using asset specific economics translated to today's market-price index.
Model weight 20%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 776.34 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 731.07 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 536.80 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 305.09 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 222.77 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 58.16 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 186.51 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 167.37 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| XLYUS Consumer Discretionary Sector | proxy | 118.20 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 587.82 | 93 | -1.7 · Expensive | +7.2% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, valuation anchors, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Non-representative symbols inherit asset-class proxy valuation context; security-specific fair value is not claimed.; Recent raw OHLC history is renderer context only and does not affect valuation, expected return, probability calibration, or valuation confidence.; Current return-calibration regime lies outside observed historical feature support; no conditional Treasury-beat probability is published.; Shiller historical-date context uses the current/revised workbook rather than true publication-vintage snapshots; earnings data are five months old.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors · Shiller Data
Valuation instruments 72
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 25.88
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
Hang Seng Index Tracker is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.682
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
Hang Seng Technology Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 30.82
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
ADA-USD
proxy
Cardano
Crypto
Last 0.17932
Fair 104
Val. +0.7
1Y +3.9%
Cardano is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 34.73
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
China A-Shares is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 605.98
Fair 104
Val. +0.7
1Y +3.9%
BNB is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 72.31
Fair 100
Val. 0.0
1Y +4.4%
US Broad Bond Market is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 50.64
Fair 94
Val. -0.8
1Y -3.2%
Brent Crude Oil is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
BTC-USD
direct
Bitcoin
Crypto
Last 62,849.64
Fair 104
Val. +0.7
1Y +3.9%
Bitcoin is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 17.59
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
China Consumer Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 40.01
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +1.5%
Copper is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
CQQQ
proxy
China Technology Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 50.88
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
China Technology Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.42
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +1.5%
Base Metals is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 536.80
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Blue-Chip Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 182.17
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.6%
Japan Hedged Equity is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EMXC
direct
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 97.29
Fair 118
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.4%
Emerging Markets Ex-China is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 47.34
Fair 97
Val. -0.6
1Y +7.5%
New Zealand Broad Market is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
ETH-USD
proxy
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 1,877.75
Fair 104
Val. +0.7
1Y +3.9%
Ethereum is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWA
direct
Australia Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 29.65
Fair 97
Val. -0.6
1Y +7.5%
Australia Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 44.16
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +8.3%
Germany Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 22.39
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
Hong Kong Broad Market is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWJ
direct
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 98.21
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.6%
Japan Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 48.02
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.6%
Japan Value Equity is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 63.27
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +8.3%
Switzerland Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 47.47
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +8.3%
France Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWS
proxy
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 33.68
Fair 97
Val. -0.6
1Y +7.5%
Singapore Broad Market is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 107.07
Fair 118
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.4%
Taiwan Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 48.26
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +8.3%
United Kingdom Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 179.74
Fair 118
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.4%
South Korea Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 33.93
Fair 118
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.4%
Brazil Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 67.53
Fair 118
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.4%
South Africa Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 71.99
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +8.3%
Eurozone Equity Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
FXI
proxy
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 34.89
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
China Large-Cap is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 89.97
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +1.5%
Gold Miners is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
GLD
direct
Gold
Metals
Last 401.48
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +1.5%
Gold is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.71
Fair 100
Val. 0.0
1Y +4.4%
High-Yield Corporate Bonds is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 93.04
Fair 100
Val. 0.0
1Y +4.4%
Intermediate US Treasuries is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 49.78
Fair 118
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.4%
India Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 305.09
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Small-Cap Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 105.23
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.6%
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 27.01
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
China Internet Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 106.12
Fair 100
Val. 0.0
1Y +4.4%
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
MCHI
direct
China Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 54.63
Fair 115
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.0%
China Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 62.04
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +1.5%
Global Metals and Mining is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 15.87
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +1.5%
Platinum is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 731.07
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Technology Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 28.14
Fair 95
Val. -1.0
1Y +6.0%
Global Real Estate is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 22.12
Fair 95
Val. -1.0
1Y +6.0%
Mortgage Real Estate is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 95.41
Fair 95
Val. -1.0
1Y +6.0%
Residential and Specialized REITs is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 222.77
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Equal-Weight Index is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 110.28
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.6%
Japan Small-Cap Equity is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.00
Fair 100
Val. 0.0
1Y +4.4%
Short-Term US Treasuries is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 58.48
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +1.5%
Silver is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 587.82
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Semiconductor Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 75.13
Fair 104
Val. +0.7
1Y +3.9%
Solana is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 776.34
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Large-Cap Index is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 32.57
Fair 95
Val. -1.0
1Y +6.0%
Data Center and Digital REITs is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 106.99
Fair 100
Val. 0.0
1Y +4.4%
Inflation-Protected Treasuries is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.04
Fair 100
Val. 0.0
1Y +4.4%
Long-Term US Treasuries is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 9.920
Fair 94
Val. -0.8
1Y -3.2%
Natural Gas is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
USO
direct
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 126.60
Fair 94
Val. -0.8
1Y -3.2%
US Crude Oil is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
VGK
direct
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 92.37
Fair 102
Val. +0.5
1Y +8.3%
Europe Broad Market is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
VNQ
direct
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 98.83
Fair 95
Val. -1.0
1Y +6.0%
US Real Estate is the representative market-price anchor; its valuation uses the asset-class fair-value distribution directly.
VWO
reference only
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 60.11
Fair 118
Val. +1.7
1Y +13.4%
Emerging Markets Broad Index is retained as a broad reference benchmark; the asset-class valuation is anchored to ex-China economics and should not be read as security-specific fair value.
XLE
proxy
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 61.91
Fair 94
Val. -0.8
1Y -3.2%
US Energy Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 58.16
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Financial Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 186.51
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Industrial Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 45.27
Fair 95
Val. -1.0
1Y +6.0%
US Real Estate Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 167.37
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Healthcare Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
XLY
proxy
US Consumer Discretionary Sector
US Equities
Last 118.20
Fair 93
Val. -1.7
1Y +7.2%
US Consumer Discretionary Sector is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 180.49
Fair 94
Val. -0.8
1Y -3.2%
Oil and Gas Producers is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 0.99710
Fair 104
Val. +0.7
1Y +3.9%
XRP is represented by the asset-class valuation framework; the fair-value figure is a proxy, not a security-specific valuation.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.7
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 115
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 115
P25–P75 101–123
PRICE WHAT-IF · MCHI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$62.72
Central P25–P75: $55.41–$67.37
Current: $54.63
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+14.8%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+13.0%
P10–P90 -11% to +34%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+9.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
77%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- The forward earnings multiple is low relative to developed-market peers.
- Dividend income provides a tangible component of current economic value.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Low multiples may partly reflect structurally weaker growth or profitability expectations.
- Asset-level fair value is a proxy across heterogeneous mainland, Hong Kong, technology, and consumer exposures.
Forward P/E
11.0 x
MSCI China
Price-to-book
1.47 x
MSCI China
Dividend yield
2.26 %
MSCI China
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
EMXC · Emerging Markets Ex-China
VALUATION
+1.7
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 118
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 118
P25–P75 104–126
PRICE WHAT-IF · EMXC
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$114.61
Central P25–P75: $101.65–$122.38
Current: $97.29
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+17.8%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+13.4%
P10–P90 -10% to +34%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+9.4%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
77%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- The ex-China forward earnings multiple provides a low current valuation anchor.
- Diversified country exposure broadens the economic drivers underlying the benchmark.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Price-to-book valuation is less compelling than the low forward P/E signal.
- Country, currency, and sector heterogeneity widen the fair-value range.
Forward P/E
10.2 x
MSCI EM ex China
Price-to-book
3.00 x
MSCI EM ex China
Dividend yield
1.97 %
MSCI EM ex China
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 103
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 97–109
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$101.35
Central P25–P75: $95.53–$106.80
Current: $98.21
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+3.2%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+8.6%
P10–P90 -7% to +23%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+4.6%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
81%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Forward valuation is materially below trailing valuation, supporting a less demanding current earnings anchor.
- Dividend income and book value provide independent valuation support.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Current valuation leaves less margin of safety if earnings normalization disappoints.
- Asset-class estimates are proxies for currency-hedged, small-cap, value, and broad-market subsegments.
Forward P/E
16.4 x
MSCI Japan
Price-to-book
2.01 x
MSCI Japan
Dividend yield
1.78 %
MSCI Japan
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
VALUATION
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 85–123
PRICE WHAT-IF · BTC-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$65,049.38
Central P25–P75: $53,189.65–$76,990.81
Current: $62,849.64
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+3.5%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+3.9%
P10–P90 -36% to +44%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-0.1%
Treasury 4.0%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
62%
moderate
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Bitcoin trades below Glassnode's true-market-mean valuation reference.
- Network realized value provides an independent lower valuation anchor.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Intrinsic-value frameworks remain less standardized than for contractual cash-flow assets.
- The spread between realized-price and higher on-chain valuation anchors implies unusually wide model uncertainty.
Bitcoin true market mean
76600.0 USD
Glassnode on-chain valuation reference
Bitcoin realized price
53400.0 USD
Glassnode on-chain realized-value reference
Short-term holder cost basis
72200.0 USD
Glassnode on-chain cost-basis reference
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 102
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 97–108
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$94.08
Central P25–P75: $89.15–$99.83
Current: $92.37
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.8%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+8.3%
P10–P90 -6% to +23%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+4.3%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
82%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Forward valuation is moderate relative to U.S. large-cap valuation.
- Dividend income provides a meaningful component of current economic value.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Higher global discount rates limit justified multiple expansion.
- Regional sector mix and country dispersion reduce precision of a single broad-market fair-value estimate.
Forward P/E
15.0 x
MSCI Europe
Price-to-book
2.52 x
MSCI Europe
Dividend yield
2.80 %
MSCI Europe
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 102
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 90–109
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$407.82
Central P25–P75: $361.69–$438.74
Current: $401.48
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.6%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+1.5%
P10–P90 -19% to +21%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-2.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
73%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Gold demand remained resilient in the first half of 2026.
- Central-bank reserve intentions provide structural demand support.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- High real Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
- Gold, silver, platinum, base metals, and miners have distinct economic anchors, widening asset-class dispersion.
10Y real Treasury yield
2.39 %
Current real-rate anchor
H1 gold demand
2522.0 tonnes
World Gold Council
H1 gold demand growth
2.00 % y/y
World Gold Council
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
0.0
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 100
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 97–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$72.02
Central P25–P75: $69.95–$74.03
Current: $72.31
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-0.4%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.4%
P10–P90 -1% to +10%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.4%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
89%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- BND's starting SEC yield provides substantial contractual carry.
- Moderate portfolio duration allows meaningful upside if justified yields normalize lower.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The current 1Y Treasury hurdle is competitive with the broad bond fund's starting yield.
- Credit-spread history is shorter in the structured input, reducing long-cycle spread confidence.
30-day SEC yield
4.57 %
Vanguard BND
Average duration
5.80 years
Vanguard BND
1Y Treasury yield
3.97 %
Current investment-basis hurdle
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
VALUATION
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 97
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 91–103
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWA
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$28.82
Central P25–P75: $27.06–$30.47
Current: $29.65
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-2.8%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.5%
P10–P90 -8% to +22%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
78%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A 3.24% regional dividend yield supports the cash-return component of fair value.
- Forward earnings valuation remains within a defensible developed-market range.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The benchmark spans economies with materially different rate, commodity, and sector exposures.
- Fair-value dispersion remains meaningful because Australia, Singapore, and New Zealand have different earnings structures.
Forward P/E
17.7 x
MSCI Pacific ex Japan
Price-to-book
2.22 x
MSCI Pacific ex Japan
Dividend yield
3.24 %
MSCI Pacific ex Japan
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
VALUATION
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 94
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 94
P25–P75 85–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · USO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$118.69
Central P25–P75: $107.00–$128.65
Current: $126.60
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-6.2%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
-3.2%
P10–P90 -28% to +22%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-7.2%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
44%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
78%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Near-term crude fundamentals remain supported by tight inventories in the EIA outlook.
- Current WTI pricing remains below the EIA's near-term Brent reference, leaving some near-term economic support.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EIA expects materially lower average Brent pricing in 2027 than in the near-term 2026 outlook.
- Commodity fair value is highly sensitive to geopolitical supply disruptions and inventory normalization.
WTI spot/futures reference
82.8 USD/bbl
EIA market price
Brent Q3 2026 forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
EIA STEO
Brent 2027 average forecast
69.0 USD/bbl
EIA STEO
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 95
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 95
P25–P75 88–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$93.39
Central P25–P75: $86.57–$100.75
Current: $98.83
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-5.5%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.0%
P10–P90 -8% to +21%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
79%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Portfolio earnings growth supports expanding property cash-flow capacity.
- Distribution yield contributes meaningful current cash return.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The 10Y Treasury yield remains a high financing-cost and cap-rate hurdle for REIT values.
- Broad REIT valuation is an imperfect proxy for mortgage, data-center, residential, and global subsegments.
Earnings growth
7.10 %
Vanguard VNQ portfolio characteristic
Price-to-book
2.60 x
Vanguard VNQ portfolio characteristic
Dividend yield
3.37 %
Vanguard VNQ
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-1.7
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 93
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 93
P25–P75 86–98
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$718.89
Central P25–P75: $664.55–$764.62
Current: $776.34
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-7.4%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.2%
P10–P90 -7% to +21%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.2%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
89%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Forward earnings growth remains strong enough to support above-average justified multiples.
- Current forward earnings provide a higher-quality anchor than trailing price history.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- CAPE remains in an extreme historical valuation zone, increasing sensitivity to multiple compression.
- High real Treasury yields raise the discount rate applied to long-duration equity cash flows.
Forward P/E
21.7 x
Current forward earnings valuation
Estimated 3-5Y EPS growth
20.0 %
Index estimate
CAPE
41.2 x
30Y median 27.59x; current near upper historical tail
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.
Sources & methodology references 16
Tier 1 · 98%
Vanguard · 2026-06-30T00:00:00-04:00
Tier 1 · 100%
U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-08-11T00:00:00-04:00