Metals
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 41.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.6
- Upside to median
- +1.6%
- Last close
- $401.48
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-14
73/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.9%
- P75
- +10.2%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -7.6%
- P10
- -18.6%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.3%
- P75
- +5.7%
- Median
- +1.2%
- P25
- -4.3%
- P10
- -10.2%
Three-year annualized scenario blend using sustainable growth or carry, partial valuation normalization, and asset-specific uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.97%
- Expected excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled, not guaranteed.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $401.48 | +1.5% |
| SLV Silver | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $58.48 | +1.5% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $15.87 | +1.5% |
| CPER Copper | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $40.01 | +1.5% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $25.42 | +1.5% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $89.97 | +1.5% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | $62.04 | +1.5% |