Energy
Today’s price sits at the 76.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–220 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 89.0
- Upside to median
- -11.0%
- Last close
- $127.61
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.2%
- P75
- +6.6%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -0.6%
- P10
- -4.2%
Three-year annualized scenario ensemble using slower partial valuation normalization and asset-specific growth/carry anchors.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled, not guaranteed.