Valuation Lens — August 11, 2026

China leads relative value; energy and U.S. equities carry the clearest valuation premiums, while crypto’s discount has lower model confidence.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 11, 2026Data cutoff Aug 11, 2026, 6:07 PM EDTintraday

The hurdle to beat

4.04%1y Treasury

The preferred one-year hurdle is 4.04% on DGS1, with positive real yields keeping discount-rate discipline important across risk assets.

10y Treasury: 4.7%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
110.097.0–127.0
Upside to median
+10.0%
1y modeled
+9.5%-10.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
+5.5%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.096.0–121.0
Upside to median
+5.0%
1y modeled
+8.5%-8.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+4.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
112.088.0–152.0
Upside to median
+12.0%
1y modeled
+14.0%-30.0% to 105.0%
vs Treasury
+10.0%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.096.0–117.0
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-6.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
101.095.0–115.0
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-5.0% to 18.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
MetalsGLD
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
101.091.0–126.0
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-10.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Fixed IncomeBND
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.098.0–103.0
Upside to median
0.0%
1y modeled
+4.7%-1.0% to 8.5%
vs Treasury
+0.7%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.092.0–112.0
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-7.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.087.0–105.0
Upside to median
-6.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-7.0% to 15.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
95.090.0–102.0
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-8.0% to 16.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
EnergyUSO
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
89.078.0–100.0
Upside to median
-11.0%
1y modeled
+2.5%-18.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-11, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	110.0 97.0–127.0	+10.0%	+9.5% -10.0% to 30.0%	+5.5%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	105.0 96.0–121.0	+5.0%	+8.5% -8.0% to 26.0%	+4.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	112.0 88.0–152.0	+12.0%	+14.0% -30.0% to 105.0%	+10.0%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	103.0 96.0–117.0	+3.0%	+7.5% -6.0% to 21.0%	+3.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.1 Fair	101.0 95.0–115.0	+1.0%	+7.0% -5.0% to 18.0%	+3.0%
Metals GLD	+0.1 Fair	101.0 91.0–126.0	+1.0%	+6.0% -10.0% to 28.0%	+2.0%
Fixed Income BND	-0.1 Fair	100.0 98.0–103.0	0.0%	+4.7% -1.0% to 8.5%	+0.7%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	97.0 92.0–112.0	-3.0%	+6.5% -7.0% to 21.0%	+2.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	94.0 87.0–105.0	-6.0%	+5.5% -7.0% to 15.0%	+1.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.3 Expensive	95.0 90.0–102.0	-5.0%	+6.0% -8.0% to 16.0%	+2.0%
Energy USO	-1.6 Expensive	89.0 78.0–100.0	-11.0%	+2.5% -18.0% to 25.0%	-1.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 67%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 67%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–270 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–220 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 67%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 67%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 67%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–220 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 57.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 67%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 71.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 80%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–220 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources15

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet
2
U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present
Robert J. Shiller / ShillerData
3
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI)
BlackRock iShares
4
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
BlackRock iShares
5
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
BlackRock iShares
6
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
Vanguard
7
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK)
Vanguard
8
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Vanguard
9
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
Vanguard
10
EIA expects highest natural gas inventories in a decade heading into winter
U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
12
A Market in Repair
Glassnode
13
1-Year Treasury Rate (DGS1)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED
14
10-Year Treasury Rate (DGS10)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED
15
10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity (DFII10)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: vl_20260811_180704-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.