Energy
Today’s price sits at the 69.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 89.1
- Upside to median
- -11.0%
- Last close
- $148.41
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.4%
- P75
- +16.2%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -24.2%
- P10
- -42.4%
45% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Partial convergence of spot toward the forecast path, offset by positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve, with a 30-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +4.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Normalisation of crude toward medium-term marginal-cost levels with fading roll yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- -8.3%
- Basis
- direct
The 1-year Treasury offers a higher modeled return than crude oil with far lower uncertainty.