Energy
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 73.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.3
- Upside to median
- -8.8%
- Last close
- $156.87
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-02
58/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
47% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Futures-fund return as expected spot change versus the backwardated curve plus roll yield and collateral income, with dispersion scaled to crude-oil volatility under supply disruption.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- -1.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
Gradual normalization of supply toward marginal-cost pricing, partly offset by roll yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- -6.4%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median falls short of the 1-year Treasury; the Treasury offers a higher expected return with far lower uncertainty.