Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.5
- Upside to median
- +2.5%
- Last close
- $43.35
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +85.0%
- P75
- +40.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -50.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; small valuation-convergence drift with dispersion scaled to bitcoin's historical volatility. Low reliability.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Adoption-driven network-value scenarios with very wide dispersion. Low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median falls short of the 1-year Treasury, and return dispersion is extreme; the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with far lower uncertainty.