Energy
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
XLE · US Energy Sector
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 52.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $70.02
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-30
66/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend plus buyback yield of about 5% offset by lower 2027 earnings as the official Brent path falls from $96 to $84; wide commodity-driven range.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Shareholder yield plus mid-cycle cash flows after the disruption premium fades.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.36%
- Modeled excess
- -0.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a similar central return with much less uncertainty.