Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 51.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $43.36
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +60.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash yield; modest adoption-driven value growth with near-neutral valuation convergence; range scaled to bitcoin's very high volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
Adoption and supply-issuance assumptions with a wide cycle range; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.36%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher central return with far less uncertainty.