Energy
Today’s price sits at the 83.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 82.0
- Upside to median
- -18.0%
- Last close
- $166.57
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- -5.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
42% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Futures-based fund return approximated as expected spot change toward the official balance path, partly offset by backwardation roll yield and collateral income; very wide range for supply-disruption outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +1.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -13.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Spot crude converging toward a $70–80 normalized range as shut-in supply returns, plus collateral income.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -9.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.