Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.0
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- Last close
- $46.14
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +60.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario mix of on-chain valuation-band outcomes (MVRV 1.0 to 2.5) with no income; median reflects a price close to modeled fair value and very wide dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Adoption and cycle scenarios; outcomes historically cluster in the tails rather than near the median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.