Energy
Today’s price sits at the 83.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 84.2
- Upside to median
- -15.8%
- Last close
- $148.16
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +40.9%
- P75
- +19.6%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -27.6%
- P10
- -48.9%
46% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Positive roll yield from a backwardated curve plus collateral interest, offset by expected partial fading of the geopolitical premium in spot crude; very wide dispersion from oil volatility and binary supply risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +23.6%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -15.5%
- P10
- -27.6%
Roll yield and collateral income less convergence toward marginal-cost-based fair value over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- -8.5%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher modeled return with far less uncertainty.