Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 50.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 0–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.7
- Upside to median
- -0.3%
- Last close
- $49.01
- Confidence
- low
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +73.5%
- P75
- +40.1%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -34.1%
- P10
- -67.5%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flows; a small adoption-driven drift with very wide dispersion from crypto volatility. Low confidence.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +45.0%
- P75
- +25.6%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -17.6%
- P10
- -37.0%
Adoption-driven drift over three years with very wide dispersion. Low confidence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a similar central expectation with far less uncertainty.