Energy
Today’s price sits at the 69.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $146.03
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.8%
- P75
- +17.8%
- Median
- -1.1%
- P25
- -19.9%
- P10
- -36.9%
49% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No contractual carry at the commodity level; return is modeled as a 15% partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median with wide dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +22.5%
- P75
- +11.6%
- Median
- -0.6%
- P25
- -12.7%
- P10
- -23.6%
Same decomposition as the one-year model with valuation convergence spread over three years and dispersion scaled by the square root of the horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.13%
- Expected excess
- -5.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median less the one-year Treasury par yield on an investment basis. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and no calibrated probability of beating the hurdle is published for this asset class.