Valuation Lens — September 8, 2026

Emerging markets, real estate and Developed Pacific screen cheapest against today's economics, while US equities, energy and metals price above modeled current value and no asset class carries a publishable calibrated probability of beating the one-year Treasury.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 8, 2026Data cutoff Sep 9, 2026, 1:10 AM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.13%1y Treasury

The one-year Treasury par yield of 4.13% on an investment basis is the annual hurdle, against a 10-year real yield of 2.43% that sits in the 98th percentile of its five-year range.

10y Treasury: 4.8%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.4
Cheap
Median fair value
106.699.5–113.8
Upside to median
+6.6%
1y modeled
+11.2%-14.4% to 36.9%
vs Treasury
+7.1%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.2
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
106.098.5–114.8
Upside to median
+6.0%
1y modeled
+11.3%-19.5% to 42.1%
vs Treasury
+7.2%
Real EstateVNQ
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
106.996.0–117.9
Upside to median
+6.9%
1y modeled
+8.0%-13.8% to 29.8%
vs Treasury
+3.9%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.996.7–109.5
Upside to median
+3.9%
1y modeled
+8.8%-10.4% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+4.7%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.796.8–108.7
Upside to median
+2.7%
1y modeled
+8.7%-12.4% to 29.9%
vs Treasury
+4.6%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.796.7–107.5
Upside to median
+1.7%
1y modeled
+8.7%-11.8% to 29.2%
vs Treasury
+4.6%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.495.8–105.4
Upside to median
+0.4%
1y modeled
+4.7%-3.0% to 12.4%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.781.1–108.7
Upside to median
-7.3%
1y modeled
-0.7%-71.2% to 69.8%
vs Treasury
-4.8%
MetalsGLD
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.583.0–102.9
Upside to median
-6.5%
1y modeled
-1.0%-21.5% to 19.5%
vs Treasury
-5.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.885.1–101.7
Upside to median
-6.2%
1y modeled
+7.9%-13.9% to 29.6%
vs Treasury
+3.8%
EnergyUSO
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.085.4–102.2
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
-1.1%-36.9% to 34.8%
vs Treasury
-5.2%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-08, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.4 Cheap	106.6 99.5–113.8	+6.6%	+11.2% -14.4% to 36.9%	+7.1%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.2 Somewhat cheap	106.0 98.5–114.8	+6.0%	+11.3% -19.5% to 42.1%	+7.2%
Real Estate VNQ	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	106.9 96.0–117.9	+6.9%	+8.0% -13.8% to 29.8%	+3.9%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	103.9 96.7–109.5	+3.9%	+8.8% -10.4% to 28.0%	+4.7%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	102.7 96.8–108.7	+2.7%	+8.7% -12.4% to 29.9%	+4.6%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	101.7 96.7–107.5	+1.7%	+8.7% -11.8% to 29.2%	+4.6%
Fixed Income BND	+0.1 Fair	100.4 95.8–105.4	+0.4%	+4.7% -3.0% to 12.4%	+0.6%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	92.7 81.1–108.7	-7.3%	-0.7% -71.2% to 69.8%	-4.8%
Metals GLD	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	93.5 83.0–102.9	-6.5%	-1.0% -21.5% to 19.5%	-5.1%
US Equities SPY	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.8 85.1–101.7	-6.2%	+7.9% -13.9% to 29.6%	+3.8%
Energy USO	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.0 85.4–102.2	-7.0%	-1.1% -36.9% to 34.8%	-5.2%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.4Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 26.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 64%Historical base rate: 67%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.2Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 30.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 50%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 34.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 60–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 54%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 37.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 69%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 41.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 79%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 38%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources6

1
Earnings Insight — S&P 500 forward P/E, EPS estimates and growth expectations
FactSet Research Systems
2
Global ex-US equities: insights and market outlook
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
3
2026 Outlook: public equity views
Cambridge Associates
4
Emerging markets equity valuations
Siblis Research
5
Compelling valuations in Japan — TOPIX forward earnings and price-to-book
Hennessy Funds
6
Real estate company analysis: NAV and cap rates explained
Winvesta

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-09-08_valuation-lens_011000-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.