Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 30.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 109.0
- Upside to median
- +9.0%
- Last close
- $96.44
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-31
84/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended growth/carry, partial valuation convergence, rate hurdle and cross-checked scenario distribution.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario model with partial, not full, valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 109.0 | $96.44 | +7.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.11 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $27.50 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $21.70 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $31.17 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $93.77 | — |