Both lenses score −3 to +3, in different senses: on Market Lens, +3 is strongly supportive conditions; on Valuation Lens, +3 is very cheap against modeled fair value.
Market Lens
- Trend
- Downtrend
- Volatility
- Normal
- Vs trend
- Oversold
Gold is in an oversold downtrend as the largest class weight and eased on 16 October, while posting the smallest five-day decline in the class. Its strongest related force is September's consumer inflation and the December hike pricing it fed, with the expected October pause as the one offset.
Full evidence →Valuation Lens
- Median fair value
- 88.0market = 100
- 1y modeled return
- +3.0%
Representative benchmark: price sits about 12% above modeled median value given real yields near 20-year highs.
Full distribution →Risk profile
- Annualised volatility
- 18.8%
- Max drawdown
- -26.4%
- 5y return (CAGR)
- 18.3%
Realized statistics from five years of monthly total returns. Historical risk is context, not a forecast.
Reading the two together
Both lenses are cautiousConditions are unsupportive and the model puts fair value below the market price. The lenses agree on the downside.
Supporting and opposing conditions
Supportive
- Smallest five-day decline in the class at -0.67%
Opposing
- Largest class weight in a downtrend
- Oversold versus its fifty-day average