Metals
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 34.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $415.26
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-20
80/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.2%
- P75
- +11.8%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- -2.9%
- P10
- -8.7%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.1%
- P75
- +6.2%
- Median
- +4.4%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- +1.0%
Three-year annualized scenario model with slower valuation convergence and reduced short-horizon noise.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.00%
- Expected excess
- +0.8%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $415.26 | +4.8% |
| SLV Silver | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $61.66 | +4.8% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $16.68 | +4.8% |
| CPER Copper | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $39.35 | +4.8% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $25.16 | +4.8% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $99.85 | +4.8% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $63.56 | +4.8% |