Valuation Lens - August 20, 2026
China and emerging markets offer the widest modeled value gaps, while real estate and energy face the strongest valuation headwinds.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - August 20, 2026
China and emerging markets lead value; real estate and energy lag
As of August 20, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
72 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 4.00%
Research cutoff · Aug 20, 2026 · 21:53 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
4.00%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.8 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
Energy
-0.7 · Somewhat expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+8.0%
Crypto
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.8
Cheap
Fair gap +9.5% · Edge +6.4%
Europe Equities
+1.3
Cheap
Fair gap +5.0% · Edge +5.0%
Emerging Mkts
+1.3
Cheap
Fair gap +6.7% · Edge +6.6%
Japan Equities
+1.3
Cheap
Fair gap +6.5% · Edge +5.4%
Metals
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +3.0% · Edge +0.8%
Crypto
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +7.0% · Edge +8.0%
Developed Pacific
+0.2
Fair
Fair gap +1.0% · Edge +2.8%
Fixed Income
-0.1
Fair
Fair gap 0.0% · Edge +0.6%
U.S. Equities
-0.2
Fair
Fair gap -3.1% · Edge +3.2%
Real Estate
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -4.0% · Edge +0.9%
Energy
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -6.0% · Edge -0.7%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 60–170
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.8 Cheap | +9.5% Fair 110 | +10.4% -1% to +22% | +6.4% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
+1.3 Cheap | +5.0% Fair 105 | +9.0% 0% to +18% | +5.0% Treasury 4.0% | 87% high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
+1.3 Cheap | +6.7% Fair 107 | +10.6% 0% to +21% | +6.6% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+1.3 Cheap | +6.5% Fair 107 | +9.4% +1% to +18% | +5.4% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +4.8% -9% to +19% | +0.8% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.8 Somewhat cheap | +7.0% Fair 107 | +12.0% -16% to +40% | +8.0% Treasury 4.0% | 66% moderate-high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
+0.2 Fair | +1.0% Fair 101 | +6.8% -2% to +14% | +2.8% Treasury 4.0% | 83% high |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
-0.1 Fair | 0.0% Fair 100 | +4.6% +2% to +8% | +0.6% Treasury 4.0% | 91% high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-0.2 Fair | -3.1% Fair 97 | +7.2% -1% to +18% | +3.2% Treasury 4.0% | 91% high |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -4.0% Fair 96 | +4.9% -3% to +14% | +0.9% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -6.0% Fair 94 | +3.3% -6% to +16% | -0.7% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 110 Valuation +1.8 Cheap Fair-value gap +9.5% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.4% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 110
P25–P75 101–118
MCHI China Broad Market
Last 55.51 · 2026-08-20
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0589.2
P1092.5
P25101.0
Median109.5
Mean110.8
P75118.2
P90127.9
P95135.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+10.4%
P10 -1.2% · P25 +4.2% · P75 +15.9% · P90 +21.6%
3Y annualized+8.3%
P10 +5.3% · P25 +6.7% · P75 +9.7% · P90 +11.1%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations173
Effective sample19.9
History2011-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Broad China equity multiples remain materially below U.S. and developed-market peers.
- Low benchmark valuation leaves more room for weak domestic growth to be absorbed in price.
- Policy remains broadly supportive even as new monetary easing is limited.
Fair-value risks
- Property stress and weak domestic demand can keep justified multiples below global peers.
- Regulatory and geopolitical risk justify a persistent valuation discount.
- Cheap multiples alone do not guarantee earnings stabilization.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental109
Current MCHI multiple and yield anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog113
Historical discount regime for China risk.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative116
Relative valuation versus EM and developed peers.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted101
Higher risk-premium / policy-risk adjusted multiple.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific107
Improved earnings and policy-support case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 55.51 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| FXIChina Large-Cap | proxy | 35.67 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 26.69 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 34.25 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| CQQQChina Technology Sector | proxy | 48.93 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 18.14 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 22.95 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 25.96 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.652 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 31.28 | 110 | +1.8 · Cheap | +10.4% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: iShares · BlackRock Investment Institute
2 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 105 Valuation +1.3 Cheap Fair-value gap +5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 87% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 105
P25–P75 98–111
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 92.01 · 2026-08-20
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0588.0
P1091.4
P2598.0
Median105.0
Mean105.5
P75111.4
P90120.0
P95125.8
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+9.0%
P10 -0.2% · P25 +4.1% · P75 +13.2% · P90 +18.0%
3Y annualized+7.5%
P10 +5.1% · P25 +6.2% · P75 +8.5% · P90 +9.7%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations245
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- European valuation multiples remain below U.S. large-cap multiples.
- Corporate earnings estimates have been revised higher through the Q2 reporting season.
- Dividend and cash-generation characteristics provide a larger income component than U.S. growth-heavy benchmarks.
Fair-value risks
- Energy-price inflation and geopolitical exposure can erode the current earnings recovery.
- Lower structural growth can justify a persistent discount to U.S. equities.
- Recent earnings strength is partly energy-driven and may normalize.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental104
Current VGK multiple and profitability anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog108
Historical European discount normalization.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative103
Relative valuation versus U.S. and Japan peers.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted98
Rate/energy-risk adjusted multiple.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific108
Earnings-revision and cash-generation case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.01 | 105 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 71.11 | 105 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 48.54 | 105 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 43.92 | 105 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 46.89 | 105 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.0% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 63.74 | 105 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
3 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 107 Valuation +1.3 Cheap Fair-value gap +6.7% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.6% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 99–114
VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index
Last 60.02 · 2026-08-20
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0588.2
P1091.5
P2599.0
Median106.7
Mean107.3
P75114.3
P90121.5
P95129.8
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+10.6%
P10 -0.4% · P25 +4.7% · P75 +15.8% · P90 +20.9%
3Y annualized+8.6%
P10 +5.8% · P25 +7.1% · P75 +9.9% · P90 +11.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations245
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- VWO combines a mid-teens earnings-growth rate with a lower multiple than U.S. equities.
- ROE is solid for the broad emerging-market benchmark.
- A softer U.S. dollar and relatively high local yields can improve USD investor economics.
Fair-value risks
- Country, currency, governance, and commodity exposures create wide dispersion around fair value.
- The broad benchmark contains expensive submarkets alongside cheaper ones.
- A stronger U.S. dollar or higher U.S. real yields can raise the required return.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental106
Current VWO P/E, growth, and ROE anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog110
Historical EM valuation normalization anchor.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative103
Relative valuation versus developed markets.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted99
USD/rate-risk adjusted multiple.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific111
Higher-growth and weaker-dollar case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 60.02 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.6% |
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | proxy | 96.98 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.6% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 49.55 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.6% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 34.14 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.6% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 104.07 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.6% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 178.16 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.6% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 70.47 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +10.6% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: Vanguard · BlackRock Investment Institute
4 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 107 Valuation +1.3 Cheap Fair-value gap +6.5% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.4% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 100–113
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 94.27 · 2026-08-20
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0591.2
P1094.6
P25100.0
Median106.5
Mean107.4
P75112.9
P90119.3
P95126.5
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+9.4%
P10 +0.7% · P25 +4.6% · P75 +13.6% · P90 +17.8%
3Y annualized+8.1%
P10 +5.8% · P25 +6.8% · P75 +9.1% · P90 +10.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations352
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Corporate governance reform and shareholder-return discipline continue to improve capital efficiency.
- A relatively high trailing distribution yield provides a tangible shareholder-return anchor.
- Exporter earnings can benefit when the yen weakens, though currency sensitivity cuts both ways.
Fair-value risks
- A sharp yen appreciation can pressure exporter earnings and valuation multiples.
- Current P/E is not especially low versus other non-U.S. markets.
- Higher Japanese rates could reduce the valuation benefit of governance reform.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental106
Current EWJ multiple and income anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog110
Governance-reform / historical normalization anchor.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative103
Relative valuation versus Europe and Pacific peers.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted100
Rate- and currency-sensitivity adjusted multiple.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific112
Higher shareholder-return and exporter-profitability case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 94.27 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.4% |
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 175.60 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.4% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 107.67 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.4% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 46.49 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.4% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 101.14 | 107 | +1.3 · Cheap | +9.4% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: iShares · Goldman Sachs · BlackRock Investment Institute
5 Metals GLD · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 92–115
GLD Gold
Last 415.26 · 2026-08-20
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0577.0
P1081.2
P2592.0
Median103.0
Mean104.1
P75115.1
P90128.3
P95130.8
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.8%
P10 -8.7% · P25 -2.9% · P75 +11.8% · P90 +19.2%
3Y annualized+4.4%
P10 +1.0% · P25 +2.5% · P75 +6.2% · P90 +8.1%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations249
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.35 %
Opportunity-cost anchor for gold
Fair-value drivers
- Central-bank gold demand rebounded sharply in Q2 and remains structurally important.
- Investment and OTC demand remain meaningful despite ETF outflows.
- Constrained mine-supply growth limits the speed of a supply response to high prices.
Fair-value risks
- A 2.35% real 10Y Treasury yield is a high opportunity-cost hurdle for non-yielding gold.
- Q2 ETF outflows show that investment demand can reverse quickly.
- High absolute gold prices constrain jewelry demand and can encourage substitution or recycling.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental103
Current gold demand/supply valuation anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog101
Historical real-yield relationship anchor.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative107
Relative real-asset valuation anchor.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted92
High-real-yield discount case.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific108
Central-bank and structural-demand case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 415.26 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 61.66 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 16.68 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
| CPERCopper | proxy | 39.35 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.16 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 99.85 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 63.56 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +4.8% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Fair value is less contractually anchored than for cash-flow assets, so scenario dispersion is deliberately wider.; No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: World Gold Council
6 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 107 Valuation +0.8 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +7.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +8.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 66% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 90–127
BTC-USD Bitcoin
Last 72,731.27 · 2026-08-20
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0565.1
P1073.6
P2590.0
Median107.0
Mean110.7
P75126.5
P90147.8
P95163.3
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+12.0%
P10 -15.9% · P25 -3.0% · P75 +25.7% · P90 +39.9%
3Y annualized+11.0%
P10 +3.7% · P25 +7.0% · P75 +14.5% · P90 +18.2%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Current Bitcoin close
72731.3 USD
Structured benchmark snapshot
1Y Treasury yield
4.00 %
Risk-free opportunity-cost hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- Bitcoin trades below Glassnode's June True Market Mean on the supplied current close.
- On-chain realized-value frameworks provide a non-price-only valuation anchor unavailable to many crypto assets.
- Institutional market access and network maturity support a broader valuation framework than pure momentum.
Fair-value risks
- Intrinsic-value frameworks are less standardized than for cash-flow assets.
- Fair-value dispersion is exceptionally wide and model confidence is materially lower.
- Network valuation can shift rapidly with adoption, liquidity, regulation, and market structure.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental107
Current Bitcoin on-chain cost-basis anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog115
Historical realized-value / MVRV regime anchor.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative100
Relative network-valuation anchor.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted90
High risk-free-hurdle / liquidity discount case.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific125
Higher-adoption and institutional-access case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 72,731.27 | 107 | +0.8 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| ETH-USDEthereum | proxy | 2,319.24 | 107 | +0.8 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 87.50 | 107 | +0.8 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 1.245 | 107 | +0.8 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 651.93 | 107 | +0.8 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| ADA-USDCardano | proxy | 0.19732 | 107 | +0.8 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Fair value is less contractually anchored than for cash-flow assets, so scenario dispersion is deliberately wider.; No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: Glassnode · Coin Metrics
7 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 83% high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 95–107
EWA Australia Broad Market
Last 29.75 · 2026-08-20
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0586.9
P1088.8
P2595.0
Median101.0
Mean100.7
P75106.5
P90111.8
P95116.1
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.8%
P10 -1.5% · P25 +3.0% · P75 +10.5% · P90 +14.2%
3Y annualized+6.7%
P10 +4.6% · P25 +5.7% · P75 +7.7% · P90 +8.6%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations352
Effective sample44.3
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Australia and Singapore retain meaningful dividend-income support.
- Australian FY26 earnings expectations remain positive despite weaker forward revisions.
- The regional mix provides exposure to financials, materials, and high-income markets.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental101
Current Australia/Singapore valuation blend.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog100
Regional historical normalization anchor.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative96
Relative valuation versus developed ex-U.S. peers.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted95
Higher policy-rate adjusted multiple.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific105
Dividend and quality-support case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 29.75 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.8% |
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | proxy | 33.62 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.8% |
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 48.01 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +6.8% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: iShares · iShares · BetaShares
8 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 100 Valuation -0.1 Fair Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.6% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 91% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 98–102
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 72.34 · 2026-08-20
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0595.1
P1096.1
P2598.0
Median100.0
Mean100.3
P75102.3
P90104.3
P95105.2
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.6%
P10 +1.8% · P25 +3.2% · P75 +6.3% · P90 +7.8%
3Y annualized+4.7%
P10 +4.0% · P25 +4.3% · P75 +5.1% · P90 +5.5%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations220
Effective sample20.8
History2007-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Starting yields near the current Treasury curve provide a meaningful carry anchor.
- Intermediate duration offers upside if justified yields decline without taking long-duration extremes.
- The broad benchmark is concentrated in investment-grade government and credit exposures.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental100
Current broad bond carry and curve anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog99
Historical yield/spread normalization.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative101
Relative value versus Treasury curve.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted98
Rate-adjusted duration valuation.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific102
Benign spread / carry-support case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.34 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.6% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.34 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.6% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 93.00 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.6% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.02 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.6% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 107.52 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.6% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 106.06 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.6% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.56 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.6% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Vanguard BND portfolio YTM/duration observations predate the analysis date; current Treasury rates are used as the primary discount-rate update.; No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: Vanguard
9 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 97 Valuation -0.2 Fair Fair-value gap -3.1% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.2% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 91% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 91–105
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 762.60 · 2026-08-20
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.3
P1085.1
P2591.0
Median96.9
Mean97.8
P75104.6
P90115.0
P95116.1
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.2%
P10 -1.4% · P25 +2.6% · P75 +12.4% · P90 +17.7%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 +4.7% · P25 +5.8% · P75 +8.3% · P90 +9.6%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations391
Effective sample31.0
History1993-01-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Forward 12M P/E
20.0 x
5Y avg 19.9x; 10Y avg 19.0x
CY 2026 EPS growth
30.0 %
FactSet consensus
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
Long-history broad U.S. valuation anchor
10Y real Treasury yield
2.35 %
Current real discount-rate anchor
Fair-value drivers
- Forward earnings growth remains unusually strong and broad relative to recent history.
- Forward P/E has compressed from the end-Q2 level even as earnings estimates increased.
- Broad U.S. financial conditions remain accommodative relative to long-run norms.
Fair-value risks
- Shiller CAPE remains historically elevated, creating sensitivity to slower earnings growth or higher discount rates.
- Real Treasury yields above 2% raise the opportunity cost for long-duration equity cash flows.
- Current earnings growth is unusually strong and may not persist at the same rate.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental101
Forward earnings and current forward-multiple anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog88
Long-history CAPE and normalized multiple anchor.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative95
Relative valuation versus developed equity peers.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted91
Current nominal and real-rate adjusted multiple.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific108
Higher-quality / stronger-growth justified multiple.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 762.60 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 710.93 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 527.51 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 297.67 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 220.28 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 56.95 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 179.77 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 172.39 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| XLYUS Consumer Discretionary Sector | proxy | 116.68 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 562.65 | 97 | -0.2 · Fair | +7.2% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Shiller earnings data are aging and the Shiller history is not a true publication-vintage reconstruction.; No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute
10 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 96 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.9% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 96
P25–P75 92–102
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 98.60 · 2026-08-20
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.6
P1086.0
P2592.0
Median96.0
Mean97.3
P75102.2
P90108.6
P95110.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.9%
P10 -2.7% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +9.6% · P90 +13.8%
3Y annualized+6.3%
P10 +4.3% · P25 +5.5% · P75 +7.5% · P90 +8.5%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations251
Effective sample26.0
History2004-09-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Expected earnings growth remains positive across the broad REIT benchmark.
- Specialized REIT segments retain structural demand in data centers, healthcare, and logistics.
- A normalized rate environment could improve financing and capitalization-rate pressure.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental96
Current REIT cash-flow and earnings anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog94
Historical REIT yield/multiple normalization.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative98
Relative valuation versus broader equities.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted92
Treasury/cap-rate adjusted valuation.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific102
Structural-growth REIT subsector case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 98.60 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.9% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 45.08 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.9% |
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 28.08 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.9% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 22.07 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.9% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 31.66 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.9% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 95.76 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.9% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
11 Energy XLE · Median fair value 94 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -6.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -0.7% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 94
P25–P75 90–103
XLE US Energy Sector
Last 63.75 · 2026-08-20
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · XLE
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0575.6
P1081.8
P2590.0
Median94.0
Mean96.2
P75102.6
P90111.3
P95113.7
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+3.3%
P10 -6.2% · P25 -0.4% · P75 +10.0% · P90 +16.0%
3Y annualized+4.6%
P10 +2.2% · P25 +3.7% · P75 +6.4% · P90 +7.9%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate44%
Raw observations232
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Near-term oil balances remain tight enough for EIA to forecast elevated Brent prices through 3Q26.
- High crude and refined-product prices support producer cash generation in the near term.
- Energy equities can retain cash-flow support even if spot commodity prices normalize gradually.
Fair-value risks
- EIA expects Brent to decline as inventories rebuild and production recovers into 2027.
- Commodity fair value is highly sensitive to geopolitical supply assumptions.
- Natural gas and producer equities do not share the same economics as crude-oil exposure.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Current Fundamental94
Current supply-balance and producer-cash-flow anchor.
Model weight 28%
Historical Analog90
Historical crude-cycle normalization.
Model weight 20%
Peer Relative98
Relative energy-equity valuation anchor.
Model weight 16%
Discount Rate Adjusted92
Normalized inventory/rate case.
Model weight 20%
Asset Specific101
Persistent supply-disruption case.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | proxy | 134.54 | 94 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +3.3% |
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 53.49 | 94 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +3.3% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 10.01 | 94 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +3.3% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | direct | 63.75 | 94 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +3.3% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 187.45 | 94 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +3.3% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor today-equivalent fair-value scenarios using current fundamentals, relative valuation, historical context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Fair value is less contractually anchored than for cash-flow assets, so scenario dispersion is deliberately wider.; No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1-year Treasury passed the deterministic calibration gate.
Valuation instruments 72
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 25.96
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.652
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 31.28
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
ADA-USD
proxy
Cardano
Crypto
Last 0.19732
Fair 107
Val. +0.8
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 34.25
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 651.93
Fair 107
Val. +0.8
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 72.34
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +4.6%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 53.49
Fair 94
Val. -0.7
1Y +3.3%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
BTC-USD
direct
Bitcoin
Crypto
Last 72,731.27
Fair 107
Val. +0.8
1Y +12.0%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 18.14
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 39.35
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
CQQQ
proxy
China Technology Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 48.93
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.16
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 527.51
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 175.60
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EMXC
proxy
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 96.98
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +10.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 48.01
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
ETH-USD
proxy
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 2,319.24
Fair 107
Val. +0.8
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWA
direct
Australia Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 29.75
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.8%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 43.92
Fair 105
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 22.95
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWJ
direct
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 94.27
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.4%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 46.49
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 63.74
Fair 105
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 46.89
Fair 105
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWS
proxy
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 33.62
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +6.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 104.07
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +10.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 48.54
Fair 105
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 178.16
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +10.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 34.14
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +10.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 70.47
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +10.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 71.11
Fair 105
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
FXI
proxy
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.67
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 99.85
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
GLD
direct
Gold
Metals
Last 415.26
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.8%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.56
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +4.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 93.00
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +4.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 49.55
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +10.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 297.67
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 101.14
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.69
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 106.06
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +4.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
MCHI
direct
China Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 55.51
Fair 110
Val. +1.8
1Y +10.4%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 63.56
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 16.68
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 710.93
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 28.08
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 22.07
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 95.76
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 220.28
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 107.67
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.4%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.02
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +4.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 61.66
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +4.8%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 562.65
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 87.50
Fair 107
Val. +0.8
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 762.60
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 31.66
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 107.52
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +4.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.34
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +4.6%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 10.01
Fair 94
Val. -0.7
1Y +3.3%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
USO
proxy
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 134.54
Fair 94
Val. -0.7
1Y +3.3%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
VGK
direct
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 92.01
Fair 105
Val. +1.3
1Y +9.0%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
VNQ
direct
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 98.60
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.9%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
VWO
direct
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 60.02
Fair 107
Val. +1.3
1Y +10.6%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
XLE
direct
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 63.75
Fair 94
Val. -0.7
1Y +3.3%
Direct representative-benchmark valuation context.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 56.95
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 179.77
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 45.08
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 172.39
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
XLY
proxy
US Consumer Discretionary Sector
US Equities
Last 116.68
Fair 97
Val. -0.2
1Y +7.2%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 187.45
Fair 94
Val. -0.7
1Y +3.3%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 1.245
Fair 107
Val. +0.8
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; no separate symbol-level fair-value model was imposed.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.8
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 110
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 110
P25–P75 101–118
PRICE WHAT-IF · MCHI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$60.78
Central P25–P75: $56.07–$65.61
Current: $55.51
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+9.5%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+10.4%
P10–P90 -1% to +22%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+6.4%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
82%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Broad China equity multiples remain materially below U.S. and developed-market peers.
- Low benchmark valuation leaves more room for weak domestic growth to be absorbed in price.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Property stress and weak domestic demand can keep justified multiples below global peers.
- Regulatory and geopolitical risk justify a persistent valuation discount.
MCHI P/E
13.8 x
MSCI China benchmark
MCHI P/B
1.67 x
MSCI China benchmark
MCHI 12M trailing yield
1.97 %
Income anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.3
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 105
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 105
P25–P75 98–111
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$96.61
Central P25–P75: $90.17–$102.50
Current: $92.01
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+5.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+9.0%
P10–P90 0% to +18%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+5.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
87%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- European valuation multiples remain below U.S. large-cap multiples.
- Corporate earnings estimates have been revised higher through the Q2 reporting season.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Energy-price inflation and geopolitical exposure can erode the current earnings recovery.
- Lower structural growth can justify a persistent discount to U.S. equities.
VGK P/E
17.5 x
Benchmark 17.6x
VGK earnings growth rate
11.6 %
Benchmark 11.5%
VGK return on equity
13.8 %
Benchmark 13.8%
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
VALUATION
+1.3
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 107
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 99–114
PRICE WHAT-IF · VWO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$64.04
Central P25–P75: $59.42–$68.60
Current: $60.02
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+6.7%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+10.6%
P10–P90 0% to +21%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+6.6%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- VWO combines a mid-teens earnings-growth rate with a lower multiple than U.S. equities.
- ROE is solid for the broad emerging-market benchmark.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Country, currency, governance, and commodity exposures create wide dispersion around fair value.
- The broad benchmark contains expensive submarkets alongside cheaper ones.
VWO P/E
17.1 x
Benchmark 17.2x
VWO earnings growth rate
15.4 %
Benchmark 15.4%
VWO return on equity
17.0 %
Benchmark 17.0%
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.3
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 107
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 100–113
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$100.40
Central P25–P75: $94.27–$106.43
Current: $94.27
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+6.5%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+9.4%
P10–P90 +1% to +18%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+5.4%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Corporate governance reform and shareholder-return discipline continue to improve capital efficiency.
- A relatively high trailing distribution yield provides a tangible shareholder-return anchor.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A sharp yen appreciation can pressure exporter earnings and valuation multiples.
- Current P/E is not especially low versus other non-U.S. markets.
EWJ P/E
19.6 x
MSCI Japan benchmark
EWJ P/B
2.09 x
MSCI Japan benchmark
EWJ 12M trailing yield
3.80 %
Income / shareholder-return anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 103
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 92–115
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$427.72
Central P25–P75: $382.04–$477.96
Current: $415.26
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+3.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.8%
P10–P90 -9% to +19%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.8%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Central-bank gold demand rebounded sharply in Q2 and remains structurally important.
- Investment and OTC demand remain meaningful despite ETF outflows.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 2.35% real 10Y Treasury yield is a high opportunity-cost hurdle for non-yielding gold.
- Q2 ETF outflows show that investment demand can reverse quickly.
Q2 gold average price
4506.3 USD/oz
LBMA PM average
Q2 central-bank gold demand
288.9 tonnes
+62% y/y
Q2 gold ETF demand
-44.8 tonnes
Quarterly outflow
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
VALUATION
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 107
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 90–127
PRICE WHAT-IF · BTC-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$77,822.46
Central P25–P75: $65,458.15–$92,005.06
Current: $72,731.27
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+7.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+12.0%
P10–P90 -16% to +40%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+8.0%
Treasury 4.0%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
66%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Bitcoin trades below Glassnode's June True Market Mean on the supplied current close.
- On-chain realized-value frameworks provide a non-price-only valuation anchor unavailable to many crypto assets.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Intrinsic-value frameworks are less standardized than for cash-flow assets.
- Fair-value dispersion is exceptionally wide and model confidence is materially lower.
Bitcoin True Market Mean
77200.0 USD
Glassnode on-chain cost-basis anchor
Current Bitcoin close
72731.3 USD
Structured benchmark snapshot
1Y Treasury yield
4.00 %
Risk-free opportunity-cost hurdle
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 95–107
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWA
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$30.05
Central P25–P75: $28.26–$31.68
Current: $29.75
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.8%
P10–P90 -2% to +14%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.8%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
83%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Australia and Singapore retain meaningful dividend-income support.
- Australian FY26 earnings expectations remain positive despite weaker forward revisions.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Australian valuations are relatively full compared with growth expectations.
- High policy rates and household sensitivity constrain domestic growth.
EWA P/E
22.1 x
Australia benchmark
EWA 12M trailing yield
2.89 %
Australia income anchor
EWS P/E
19.4 x
Singapore benchmark
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
-0.1
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 100
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 98–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$72.34
Central P25–P75: $70.89–$74.00
Current: $72.34
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
0.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.6%
P10–P90 +2% to +8%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.6%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
91%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Starting yields near the current Treasury curve provide a meaningful carry anchor.
- Intermediate duration offers upside if justified yields decline without taking long-duration extremes.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Credit spreads are relatively tight, limiting compensation for a deterioration in growth.
- Higher-for-longer Treasury yields can offset carry through duration losses.
BND yield to maturity
4.30 %
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
BND average duration
5.80 years
Interest-rate sensitivity
1Y Treasury yield
4.00 %
Preferred annual hurdle
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 97
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 91–105
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$738.96
Central P25–P75: $693.97–$797.68
Current: $762.60
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-3.1%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.2%
P10–P90 -1% to +18%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.2%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
91%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Forward earnings growth remains unusually strong and broad relative to recent history.
- Forward P/E has compressed from the end-Q2 level even as earnings estimates increased.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Shiller CAPE remains historically elevated, creating sensitivity to slower earnings growth or higher discount rates.
- Real Treasury yields above 2% raise the opportunity cost for long-duration equity cash flows.
Forward 12M P/E
20.0 x
5Y avg 19.9x; 10Y avg 19.0x
CY 2026 EPS growth
30.0 %
FactSet consensus
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
Long-history broad U.S. valuation anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 96
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 96
P25–P75 92–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$94.66
Central P25–P75: $90.71–$100.77
Current: $98.60
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.9%
P10–P90 -3% to +14%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.9%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Expected earnings growth remains positive across the broad REIT benchmark.
- Specialized REIT segments retain structural demand in data centers, healthcare, and logistics.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- REIT cash-flow yields compete directly with a 4.65% 10Y Treasury yield.
- Refinancing costs remain a material headwind for leveraged property segments.
VNQ P/E
31.0 x
Broad U.S. real estate benchmark
VNQ earnings growth rate
8.20 %
Broad U.S. real estate benchmark
IYR P/CF
17.6 x
U.S. real-estate cash-flow multiple
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
XLE · US Energy Sector
VALUATION
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 94
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 94
P25–P75 90–103
PRICE WHAT-IF · XLE
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$59.92
Central P25–P75: $57.38–$65.41
Current: $63.75
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · XLE
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-6.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+3.3%
P10–P90 -6% to +16%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-0.7%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
44%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
82%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Near-term oil balances remain tight enough for EIA to forecast elevated Brent prices through 3Q26.
- High crude and refined-product prices support producer cash generation in the near term.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EIA expects Brent to decline as inventories rebuild and production recovers into 2027.
- Commodity fair value is highly sensitive to geopolitical supply assumptions.
Brent 3Q26 forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
EIA August STEO
Brent 4Q26 forecast
78.0 USD/bbl
EIA August STEO
Brent 2027 forecast
69.0 USD/bbl
EIA August STEO
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.
Sources & methodology references 17
Tier 2 · 90%
Reuters · 2026-08-19