Metals
Today’s price sits at the 62.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.0
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- Last close
- $413.84
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Three-year annualized scenario model with slower valuation convergence and wider economic uncertainty; current valuation, income/carry, and asset-specific fundamentals are separated from price momentum.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.99%
- Expected excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed return. DTB1YR remains a discount-basis reference.