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CXProWealth

Valuation Lens — August 19, 2026

Relative value favors China and Europe over U.S. equities

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Data cutoff intraday
The hurdle to beat
3.99%1y Treasury

The preferred 1-year Treasury hurdle is 3.99%, while 10-year nominal and real yields remain elevated at 4.71% and 2.41%.

10y Treasury
4.7%
10y real
2.4%
Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market
+1.4Cheap
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 27.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market
+1.0Somewhat cheap
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 63%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
+0.6Somewhat cheap
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin
+0.5Somewhat cheap
507090110130150170190210FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market
+0.4Somewhat cheap
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market
+0.2Fair
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate
-0.3Fair
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold
-0.7Somewhat expensive
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 62.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market
-0.9Somewhat expensive
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil
-0.9Somewhat expensive
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index
-1.3Expensive
6080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 80%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources12
  1. 1
    State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust
    State Street Global Advisors
  2. 2
    iShares MSCI China ETF
    BlackRock iShares
  3. 3
    iShares MSCI Japan ETF
    BlackRock iShares
  4. 4
    iShares MSCI Australia ETF
    BlackRock iShares
  5. 5
    iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan ETF
    BlackRock iShares
  6. 6
    Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF
    Vanguard
  7. 7
    Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
    Vanguard
  8. 8
    Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
    Vanguard
  9. 9
    Vanguard Real Estate ETF SEC Yield
    Vanguard
  10. 10
    Short-Term Energy Outlook
    U.S. Energy Information Administration
  11. 11
    Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
    World Gold Council
  12. 12
    A Market in Repair
    Glassnode
Methodology
cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version
3.4.0
Run ID
2026-08-19_valuation-lens_210100-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.