Japan Equities
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 42.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.1
- Upside to median
- +2.1%
- Last close
- $95.37
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-18
84/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario blend of sustainable economic growth/carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific current valuation anchors.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Annualized three-year scenario blend with slower valuation convergence and wider macro/fundamental uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.00%
- Expected excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
Expected excess is a modeled spread versus the current 1Y Treasury investment-basis yield; it is not guaranteed.
Instruments
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.1 | $95.37 | +7.5% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.1 | $177.69 | +7.5% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.1 | $107.93 | +7.5% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.1 | $47.01 | +7.5% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.1 | $102.04 | +7.5% |