Valuation Lens - August 18, 2026
China screens cheapest, while US and emerging-market valuations face higher hurdles from elevated real yields and richer starting prices.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - August 18, 2026
China screens cheap while US and EM valuations stay demanding
As of August 18, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
71 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 4.00%
Research cutoff · Aug 19, 2026 · 01:17 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
4.00%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.7 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
U.S. Equities
-1.7 · Expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+8.0%
Crypto
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.7
Cheap
Fair gap +8.2% · Edge +4.0%
Crypto
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +13.0% · Edge +8.0%
Fixed Income
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +1.0% · Edge +0.7%
Japan Equities
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +2.1% · Edge +3.5%
Metals
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +1.1% · Edge +1.0%
Europe Equities
+0.2
Fair
Fair gap +0.6% · Edge +3.0%
Developed Pacific
-0.2
Fair
Fair gap -1.9% · Edge +2.0%
Real Estate
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -3.4% · Edge +1.5%
Energy
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -8.4% · Edge -2.0%
Emerging Mkts
-1.6
Expensive
Fair gap -10.0% · Edge +0.5%
U.S. Equities
-1.7
Expensive
Fair gap -11.2% · Edge 0.0%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 50–180
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.7 Cheap | +8.2% Fair 108 | +8.0% -18% to +38% | +4.0% Treasury 4.0% | 81% high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +13.0% Fair 113 | +12.0% -55% to +85% | +8.0% Treasury 4.0% | 63% moderate |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +1.0% Fair 101 | +4.7% -2% to +10% | +0.7% Treasury 4.0% | 90% high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +2.1% Fair 102 | +7.5% -16% to +32% | +3.5% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +1.1% Fair 101 | +5.0% -28% to +38% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 76% moderate-high |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
+0.2 Fair | +0.6% Fair 101 | +7.0% -14% to +29% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 85% high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
-0.2 Fair | -1.9% Fair 98 | +6.0% -15% to +28% | +2.0% Treasury 4.0% | 76% moderate-high |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -3.4% Fair 97 | +5.5% -18% to +31% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
-1.1 Somewhat expensive | -8.4% Fair 92 | +2.0% -35% to +38% | -2.0% Treasury 4.0% | 75% moderate-high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
-1.6 Expensive | -10.0% Fair 90 | +4.5% -25% to +36% | +0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-1.7 Expensive | -11.2% Fair 89 | +4.0% -20% to +28% | 0.0% Treasury 4.0% | 89% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 108 Valuation +1.7 Cheap Fair-value gap +8.2% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 101–115
MCHI China Broad Market
Last 54.90 · 2026-08-18
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0589.6
P1092.2
P25100.6
Median108.2
Mean108.4
P75115.4
P90123.8
P95125.9
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+8.0%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -7.0% · P75 +22.0% · P90 +38.0%
3Y annualized+8.5%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +14.0% · P90 +20.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations173
Effective sample19.9
History2011-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.00 %
Current risk-free annual hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- A low broad-market P/E and price/book ratio leave more room for value realization if earnings stabilize.
Fair-value risks
- Low multiples partly reflect weaker growth visibility and a higher required risk premium.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case92
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case108
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case124
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 54.90 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| FXIChina Large-Cap | proxy | 35.06 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 26.78 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 34.91 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| CQQQChina Technology Sector | proxy | 50.50 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 17.72 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 22.43 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 25.60 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.616 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 30.90 | 108 | +1.7 · Cheap | +8.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
2 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 113 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +13.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +8.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 63% moderate
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 113
P25–P75 91–133
BTC-USD Bitcoin
Last 64,581 · 2026-08-18
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0558.8
P1067.8
P2590.6
Median113.0
Mean114.3
P75133.4
P90157.5
P95168.5
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+12.0%
P10 -55.0% · P25 -28.0% · P75 +48.0% · P90 +85.0%
3Y annualized+11.0%
P10 -22.0% · P25 -7.0% · P75 +30.0% · P90 +50.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Bitcoin remains below important mid-year on-chain cost-basis and True Market Mean references.
Fair-value risks
- Crypto intrinsic-value methods remain model-dependent and the high real-yield regime is a significant opportunity-cost headwind.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case68
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case113
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case158
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 64,581 | 113 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| ETH-USDEthereum | proxy | 1,912.89 | 113 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 76.89 | 113 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 0.99920 | 113 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 602.36 | 113 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| ADA-USDCardano | proxy | 0.17302 | 113 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.; Crypto fair value has intrinsically high model dispersion and limited completed 12-month calibration history.
3 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.7% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 90% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 99–104
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 72.22 · 2026-08-18
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0594.5
P1096.3
P2598.6
Median101.0
Mean101.3
P75103.5
P90106.3
P95107.5
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.7%
P10 -1.5% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +7.0% · P90 +10.0%
3Y annualized+4.5%
P10 +1.0% · P25 +3.0% · P75 +6.0% · P90 +8.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations220
Effective sample20.8
History2007-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Starting carry is competitive with the one-year Treasury hurdle.
Fair-value risks
- A 5.7-year duration leaves market value sensitive to further increases in intermediate and long yields.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case96
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case101
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case106
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.22 | 101 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.7% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 81.66 | 101 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.7% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 92.93 | 101 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.7% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.02 | 101 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.7% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 107.02 | 101 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.7% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 105.84 | 101 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.7% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.53 | 101 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +4.7% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.
Sources: Vanguard
4 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +2.1% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 97–108
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 95.37 · 2026-08-18
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0587.9
P1090.5
P2596.5
Median102.1
Mean102.5
P75108.0
P90114.0
P95116.3
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.5%
P10 -16.0% · P25 -6.0% · P75 +20.0% · P90 +32.0%
3Y annualized+7.5%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +12.0% · P90 +17.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations352
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.00 %
Current risk-free annual hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- Current earnings and income anchors support the central fair-value scenarios.
Fair-value risks
- Elevated global risk-free rates limit justified multiple expansion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case91
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case102
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case114
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 95.37 | 102 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 177.69 | 102 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 107.93 | 102 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 47.01 | 102 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 102.04 | 102 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
5 Metals GLD · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.1% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 76% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 90–111
GLD Gold
Last 398.55 · 2026-08-18
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0571.7
P1078.7
P2590.0
Median101.1
Mean101.1
P75110.7
P90122.5
P95130.6
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.0%
P10 -28.0% · P25 -12.0% · P75 +22.0% · P90 +38.0%
3Y annualized+5.0%
P10 -10.0% · P25 -3.0% · P75 +14.0% · P90 +22.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations249
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real yield
2.44 %
High opportunity cost for non-yielding metals
Fair-value drivers
- Central-bank and investment demand provide structural support to gold.
Fair-value risks
- A 2.44% 10Y real yield is a material valuation headwind for non-yielding precious metals.
- Global mining equities trade on a relatively rich earnings multiple.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case79
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case101
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case123
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 398.55 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 57.44 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 15.56 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| CPERCopper | proxy | 39.18 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.07 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 88.95 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 61.87 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.; Metals combines heterogeneous precious, industrial, and mining-equity exposures, so asset-class fair-value dispersion is intentionally wide.
Sources: World Gold Trust Services · World Gold Council · BlackRock iShares
6 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +0.6% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 85% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 96–105
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 91.55 · 2026-08-18
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0587.4
P1090.5
P2595.7
Median100.6
Mean100.8
P75105.1
P90110.6
P95113.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.0%
P10 -14.0% · P25 -5.0% · P75 +18.0% · P90 +29.0%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 -2.0% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +11.0% · P90 +16.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations245
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Current earnings and income anchors support the central fair-value scenarios.
Fair-value risks
- Elevated global risk-free rates limit justified multiple expansion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case91
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case101
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case111
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 91.55 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 71.10 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 48.16 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 43.68 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 46.75 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 62.91 | 101 | +0.2 · Fair | +7.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.
Sources: Vanguard
7 Developed Pacific Equities EWS · Median fair value 98 Valuation -0.2 Fair Fair-value gap -1.9% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 76% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 93–104
EWS Singapore Broad Market
Last 33.47 · 2026-08-18
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWS
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0583.9
P1087.8
P2593.0
Median98.1
Mean99.1
P75104.1
P90110.6
P95113.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.0%
P10 -15.0% · P25 -5.0% · P75 +17.0% · P90 +28.0%
3Y annualized+6.5%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +1.5% · P75 +11.0% · P90 +16.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations352
Effective sample44.3
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.00 %
Current risk-free annual hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- Current earnings and income anchors support the central fair-value scenarios.
Fair-value risks
- Elevated global risk-free rates limit justified multiple expansion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case88
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case98
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case111
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | direct | 33.47 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +6.0% |
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 47.10 | 98 | -0.2 · Fair | +6.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: EWA is the upstream return-calibration proxy but is not present in supplied SymbolStats; EWS is used as the direct representative benchmark for current-price normalization.; No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
8 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 97 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -3.4% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 91–102
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 97.62 · 2026-08-18
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0580.0
P1084.1
P2590.9
Median96.6
Mean97.4
P75102.2
P90109.7
P95113.1
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -7.0% · P75 +18.0% · P90 +31.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -5.0% · P25 0.0% · P75 +12.0% · P90 +18.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations251
Effective sample26.0
History2004-09-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Earnings growth provides a fundamental offset to the high-rate environment.
Fair-value risks
- The 3.27% dividend yield remains below the 4.72% 10Y Treasury yield, keeping the discount-rate hurdle high.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case84
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case97
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case110
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 97.62 | 97 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 44.63 | 97 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 27.88 | 97 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 22.00 | 97 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 31.67 | 97 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 94.40 | 97 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.
Sources: Vanguard
9 Energy USO · Median fair value 92 Valuation -1.1 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -8.4% vs market 100 Expected edge -2.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 75% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 81–102
USO US Crude Oil
Last 130.66 · 2026-08-18
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0562.1
P1069.6
P2581.1
Median91.6
Mean92.9
P75102.0
P90114.7
P95120.7
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+2.0%
P10 -35.0% · P25 -18.0% · P75 +20.0% · P90 +38.0%
3Y annualized+4.0%
P10 -12.0% · P25 -4.0% · P75 +14.0% · P90 +23.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate44%
Raw observations232
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Supply constraints keep near-term oil-value anchors elevated.
Fair-value risks
- EIA expects Brent to ease by 4Q26 as flows and production normalize, while USO roll mechanics add basis risk.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case70
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case92
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case115
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 130.66 | 92 | -1.1 · Somewhat expensive | +2.0% |
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 52.11 | 92 | -1.1 · Somewhat expensive | +2.0% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 10.10 | 92 | -1.1 · Somewhat expensive | +2.0% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | proxy | 63.68 | 92 | -1.1 · Somewhat expensive | +2.0% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 185.35 | 92 | -1.1 · Somewhat expensive | +2.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.; USO is a futures-based vehicle; spot and forecast oil-price anchors do not map one-for-one to ETF fair value because of curve and roll effects.
Sources: USCF Investments · U.S. Energy Information Administration · International Energy Agency
10 Emerging Markets Equities EMXC · Median fair value 90 Valuation -1.6 Expensive Fair-value gap -10.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 90
P25–P75 81–98
EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China
Last 94.81 · 2026-08-18
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0567.4
P1072.2
P2580.7
Median90.0
Mean90.8
P7598.2
P90108.5
P95112.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.5%
P10 -25.0% · P25 -11.0% · P75 +20.0% · P90 +36.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -7.0% · P25 -1.0% · P75 +13.0% · P90 +20.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations245
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.00 %
Current risk-free annual hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- Diversified ex-China exposure retains meaningful earnings and income participation.
Fair-value risks
- The current P/E and price/book combination is demanding relative to the 4.0% Treasury hurdle.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case72
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case90
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case109
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | proxy | 59.64 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | direct | 94.81 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 49.38 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 33.70 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 104.39 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 170.05 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 67.10 | 90 | -1.6 · Expensive | +4.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 89 Valuation -1.7 Expensive Fair-value gap -11.2% vs market 100 Expected edge 0.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 89% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 89
P25–P75 78–98
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 767.45 · 2026-08-18
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0565.3
P1071.5
P2577.5
Median88.8
Mean89.0
P7597.6
P90105.4
P95109.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.0%
P10 -20.0% · P25 -8.0% · P75 +16.0% · P90 +28.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +10.0% · P90 +15.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations391
Effective sample31.0
History1993-01-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real yield
2.44 %
High real discount-rate hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- Strong estimated medium-term EPS growth supports a valuation premium.
- Current earnings remain strong enough to keep forward valuation below trailing valuation.
Fair-value risks
- Shiller CAPE is near the top of its multi-decade historical range.
- A 2.44% 10Y real yield raises the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration equities.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation case72
Lower-end fair-value case reflecting adverse discount-rate, growth, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation case89
Central today-equivalent fair-value case from the weighted scenario blend.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation case105
Upper-end fair-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 767.45 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 717.51 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 532.91 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 300.23 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 219.79 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 57.84 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 183.57 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 169.73 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| XLYUS Consumer Discretionary Sector | proxy | 116.36 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 569.77 | 89 | -1.7 · Expensive | +4.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical blend of historical-analog, peer-relative, current-fundamental, discount-rate-adjusted, and asset-specific scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade calibrated conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream/hard publication gates.; Shiller earnings are aging relative to the analysis date; CAPE remains useful as long-history context but is not the sole valuation anchor.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors · Robert J. Shiller
Valuation instruments 71
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 25.60
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.616
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 30.90
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
ADA-USD
proxy
Cardano
Crypto
Last 0.17302
Fair 113
Val. +0.9
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 34.91
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 602.36
Fair 113
Val. +0.9
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 72.22
Fair 101
Val. +0.6
1Y +4.7%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 52.11
Fair 92
Val. -1.1
1Y +2.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
BTC-USD
direct
Bitcoin
Crypto
Last 64,581
Fair 113
Val. +0.9
1Y +12.0%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 17.72
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 39.18
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
CQQQ
proxy
China Technology Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 50.50
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.07
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 532.91
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 177.69
Fair 102
Val. +0.4
1Y +7.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EMXC
direct
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 94.81
Fair 90
Val. -1.6
1Y +4.5%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 47.10
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +6.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
ETH-USD
proxy
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 1,912.89
Fair 113
Val. +0.9
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 43.68
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 22.43
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWJ
direct
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 95.37
Fair 102
Val. +0.4
1Y +7.5%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 47.01
Fair 102
Val. +0.4
1Y +7.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 62.91
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 46.75
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWS
direct
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 33.47
Fair 98
Val. -0.2
1Y +6.0%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 104.39
Fair 90
Val. -1.6
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 48.16
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 170.05
Fair 90
Val. -1.6
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 33.70
Fair 90
Val. -1.6
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 67.10
Fair 90
Val. -1.6
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 71.10
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
FXI
proxy
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.06
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 88.95
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
GLD
direct
Gold
Metals
Last 398.55
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.53
Fair 101
Val. +0.6
1Y +4.7%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 92.93
Fair 101
Val. +0.6
1Y +4.7%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 49.38
Fair 90
Val. -1.6
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 300.23
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 102.04
Fair 102
Val. +0.4
1Y +7.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.78
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 105.84
Fair 101
Val. +0.6
1Y +4.7%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
MCHI
direct
China Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 54.90
Fair 108
Val. +1.7
1Y +8.0%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 61.87
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 15.56
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 717.51
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 27.88
Fair 97
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 22.00
Fair 97
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 94.40
Fair 97
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 219.79
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 107.93
Fair 102
Val. +0.4
1Y +7.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.02
Fair 101
Val. +0.6
1Y +4.7%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 57.44
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 569.77
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 76.89
Fair 113
Val. +0.9
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 767.45
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 31.67
Fair 97
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 107.02
Fair 101
Val. +0.6
1Y +4.7%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 81.66
Fair 101
Val. +0.6
1Y +4.7%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 10.10
Fair 92
Val. -1.1
1Y +2.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
USO
direct
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 130.66
Fair 92
Val. -1.1
1Y +2.0%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
VGK
direct
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 91.55
Fair 101
Val. +0.2
1Y +7.0%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
VNQ
direct
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 97.62
Fair 97
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Representative benchmark valuation uses direct asset-class evidence.
VWO
proxy
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 59.64
Fair 90
Val. -1.6
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XLE
proxy
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 63.68
Fair 92
Val. -1.1
1Y +2.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 57.84
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 183.57
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 44.63
Fair 97
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 169.73
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XLY
proxy
US Consumer Discretionary Sector
US Equities
Last 116.36
Fair 89
Val. -1.7
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 185.35
Fair 92
Val. -1.1
1Y +2.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 0.99920
Fair 113
Val. +0.9
1Y +12.0%
Asset-class valuation is used as a proxy; no security-specific fair-value model is claimed.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.7
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 108
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 101–115
PRICE WHAT-IF · MCHI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$59.40
Central P25–P75: $55.23–$63.35
Current: $54.90
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+8.2%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+8.0%
P10–P90 -18% to +38%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+4.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
81%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A low broad-market P/E and price/book ratio leave more room for value realization if earnings stabilize.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Low multiples partly reflect weaker growth visibility and a higher required risk premium.
P/E ratio
13.6 x
Current broad-market multiple
P/B ratio
1.66 x
Balance-sheet valuation cross-check
12m trailing yield
1.97 %
Income component
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 113
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 113
P25–P75 91–133
PRICE WHAT-IF · BTC-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$72,976.53
Central P25–P75: $58,510.39–$86,151.05
Current: $64,581
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+13.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+12.0%
P10–P90 -55% to +85%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+8.0%
Treasury 4.0%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
63%
moderate
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Bitcoin remains below important mid-year on-chain cost-basis and True Market Mean references.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Crypto intrinsic-value methods remain model-dependent and the high real-yield regime is a significant opportunity-cost headwind.
True Market Mean reference
77.2 $k
June 17 on-chain reference
Short-term holder cost basis
72.6 $k
June 17 investor cost-basis reference
10Y real yield
2.44 %
High macro opportunity cost
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 99–104
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$72.94
Central P25–P75: $71.21–$74.75
Current: $72.22
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.7%
P10–P90 -2% to +10%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.7%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
90%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Starting carry is competitive with the one-year Treasury hurdle.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 5.7-year duration leaves market value sensitive to further increases in intermediate and long yields.
30-day SEC yield
4.66 %
1Y Treasury 4.00%
Average duration
5.70 years
Moderate rate sensitivity
10Y Treasury yield
4.72 %
Broad bond-market rate anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 102
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 97–108
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$97.37
Central P25–P75: $92.03–$103.00
Current: $95.37
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+2.1%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.5%
P10–P90 -16% to +32%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Current earnings and income anchors support the central fair-value scenarios.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Elevated global risk-free rates limit justified multiple expansion.
P/E ratio
19.9 x
Current broad-market multiple
P/B ratio
2.12 x
Balance-sheet valuation cross-check
12m trailing yield
3.80 %
Income component
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 90–111
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$402.93
Central P25–P75: $358.69–$441.19
Current: $398.55
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.1%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.0%
P10–P90 -28% to +38%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
76%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Central-bank and investment demand provide structural support to gold.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 2.44% 10Y real yield is a material valuation headwind for non-yielding precious metals.
- Global mining equities trade on a relatively rich earnings multiple.
Q2 central-bank gold demand
289.0 tonnes
Strong structural demand
10Y real yield
2.44 %
High opportunity cost for non-yielding metals
PICK P/E ratio
22.9 x
Mining-equity cross-check
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 96–105
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$92.10
Central P25–P75: $87.61–$96.22
Current: $91.55
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+0.6%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.0%
P10–P90 -14% to +29%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
85%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Current earnings and income anchors support the central fair-value scenarios.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Elevated global risk-free rates limit justified multiple expansion.
P/E ratio
18.0 x
Current broad-market multiple
P/B ratio
2.40 x
Balance-sheet valuation cross-check
Earnings growth rate
9.98 %
Forward economic-output context
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWS · Singapore Broad Market
VALUATION
-0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 98
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 93–104
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWS
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$32.83
Central P25–P75: $31.13–$34.84
Current: $33.47
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWS
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-1.9%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.0%
P10–P90 -15% to +28%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
76%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Current earnings and income anchors support the central fair-value scenarios.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Elevated global risk-free rates limit justified multiple expansion.
P/E ratio
19.4 x
Current broad-market multiple
P/B ratio
2.20 x
Balance-sheet valuation cross-check
12m trailing yield
3.64 %
Income component
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 97
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 91–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$94.30
Central P25–P75: $88.74–$99.77
Current: $97.62
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-3.4%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -18% to +31%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
79%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Earnings growth provides a fundamental offset to the high-rate environment.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The 3.27% dividend yield remains below the 4.72% 10Y Treasury yield, keeping the discount-rate hurdle high.
Dividend yield
3.27 %
Below 10Y Treasury yield 4.72%
Earnings growth rate
6.77 %
Supports cash-flow growth
10Y Treasury yield
4.72 %
Financing/discount-rate anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
VALUATION
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 92
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 81–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · USO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$119.68
Central P25–P75: $105.97–$133.27
Current: $130.66
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-8.4%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+2.0%
P10–P90 -35% to +38%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-2.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
44%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
75%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Supply constraints keep near-term oil-value anchors elevated.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EIA expects Brent to ease by 4Q26 as flows and production normalize, while USO roll mechanics add basis risk.
EIA Brent 3Q26
85.0 $/bbl
Supply-disruption case
EIA Brent 4Q26
78.0 $/bbl
Normalization case
2026 WTI average forecast
80.9 $/bbl
Full-year EIA anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
EMXC · Emerging Markets Ex-China
VALUATION
-1.6
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 90
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 90
P25–P75 81–98
PRICE WHAT-IF · EMXC
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$85.33
Central P25–P75: $76.51–$93.10
Current: $94.81
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-10.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.5%
P10–P90 -25% to +36%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Diversified ex-China exposure retains meaningful earnings and income participation.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The current P/E and price/book combination is demanding relative to the 4.0% Treasury hurdle.
P/E ratio
22.1 x
Current broad-market multiple
P/B ratio
3.23 x
Balance-sheet valuation cross-check
12m trailing yield
2.06 %
Income component
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-1.7
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 89
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 89
P25–P75 78–98
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$681.50
Central P25–P75: $594.77–$749.03
Current: $767.45
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-11.2%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.0%
P10–P90 -20% to +28%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
0.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
89%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Strong estimated medium-term EPS growth supports a valuation premium.
- Current earnings remain strong enough to keep forward valuation below trailing valuation.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Shiller CAPE is near the top of its multi-decade historical range.
- A 2.44% 10Y real yield raises the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration equities.
Forward P/E
21.4 x
Trailing index P/E 25.28x
Est. 3-5Y EPS growth
17.8 %
Supports premium valuation
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
95th percentile vs 30Y history
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.
Sources & methodology references 17
Tier 1 · 99%
U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-08-11T12:00:00-04:00
Tier 1 · 98%
International Energy Agency · 2026-08-12T10:00:00+02:00