Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 43.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–230 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $64,325.01
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +95.0%
- P75
- +55.0%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -55.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario distribution combining economic-output/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; not a price target.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +60.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario model using sustainable fundamentals/carry and partial valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.98%
- Expected excess
- +8.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed. DTB1YR is retained on a discount basis.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD Bitcoin | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $64,325.01 | +12.0% |
| ETH-USD Ethereum | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $1,907.40 | +12.0% |
| SOL-USD Solana | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $75.97 | +12.0% |
| XRP-USD XRP | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $1.00 | +12.0% |
| BNB-USD BNB | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $605.05 | +12.0% |
| ADA-USD Cardano | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $0.17 | +12.0% |