Valuation Lens - August 11, 2026
China leads relative value; energy and U.S. equities look expensive, while crypto’s apparent discount comes with much lower valuation confidence.
Valuation Lens - August 11, 2026
China leads relative value; energy and U.S. equities carry the clearest valuation premiums, while crypto’s discount has lower model confidence.
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
Detailed valuation dashboard
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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China & Hong Kong Equities
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+1.0 Somewhat cheap | +10.0% Fair 110 | +9.5% -10% to +30% | +5.5% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
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Emerging Markets Equities
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+0.7 Somewhat cheap | +5.0% Fair 105 | +8.5% -8% to +26% | +4.5% Treasury 4.0% | 85% high |
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Crypto
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+0.7 Somewhat cheap | +12.0% Fair 112 | +14.0% -30% to +105% | +10.0% Treasury 4.0% | 62% moderate |
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Europe Equities
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+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +7.5% -6% to +21% | +3.5% Treasury 4.0% | 86% high |
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Japan Equities
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+0.1 Fair | +1.0% Fair 101 | +7.0% -5% to +18% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 86% high |
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Metals
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+0.1 Fair | +1.0% Fair 101 | +6.0% -10% to +28% | +2.0% Treasury 4.0% | 83% high |
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Fixed Income
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-0.1 Fair | 0.0% Fair 100 | +4.7% -1% to +9% | +0.7% Treasury 4.0% | 94% high |
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Real Estate
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-0.4 Somewhat expensive | -3.0% Fair 97 | +6.5% -7% to +21% | +2.5% Treasury 4.0% | 75% moderate-high |
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Developed Pacific Equities
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-1.0 Somewhat expensive | -6.0% Fair 94 | +5.5% -7% to +15% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
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US Equities
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-1.3 Expensive | -5.0% Fair 95 | +6.0% -8% to +16% | +2.0% Treasury 4.0% | 92% high |
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Energy
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-1.6 Expensive | -11.0% Fair 89 | +2.5% -18% to +25% | -1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 110 Valuation +1.0 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +10.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A low-teens portfolio P/E provides a meaningful relative valuation discount.
- Moderate price-to-book valuation supports current economic value.
- The valuation discount may reflect lower profitability, policy, and governance uncertainty not captured by raw multiples.
- The representative dividend yield remains below the Treasury hurdle.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | proxy | 55.62 | 110 | +1.0 · Somewhat cheap | +9.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
2 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 105 Valuation +0.7 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 85% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Double-digit portfolio earnings growth supports current value.
- ROE near 17% provides a quality anchor for the portfolio multiple.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | proxy | 60.12 | 105 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +8.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; VWO includes China, while some downstream emerging-market views may treat ex-China exposure separately.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: Vanguard
3 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 112 Valuation +0.7 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +12.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +10.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 62% moderate
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Bitcoin traded below Glassnode's True Market Mean cost-basis reference at the latest available on-chain observation.
- Sub-1.0 short-term-holder MVRV indicated depressed holder economics at the latest available observation.
- Crypto fair value is highly model-dependent and lacks a universally accepted intrinsic-value framework.
- Positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of non-cash-flow assets.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 63,649.26 | 112 | +0.7 · Somewhat cheap | +14.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Missing inputs: Sufficient completed 12-month calibration history
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; Bitcoin-based valuation is not transferred to other crypto assets; intrinsic-value model risk remains high.; Latest on-chain valuation evidence is from June 17, 2026 and is therefore given reduced weight.; Upstream historical calibration does not have enough completed 12-month outcomes for a publishable base rate or conditional probability.
Sources: Glassnode · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED
4 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 86% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Double-digit portfolio earnings growth supports current value.
- The current P/E remains moderate relative to U.S. large caps.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.30 | 103 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +7.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: Vanguard
5 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.1 Fair Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 86% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A near-4% trailing distribution yield supports total-return economics.
- Portfolio valuation remains within a defensible developed-market range.
- The P/E has risen to a full developed-market level, reducing the prior valuation discount.
- Currency and policy-rate sensitivity can alter justified multiples even when local fundamentals hold.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 96.28 | 101 | +0.1 · Fair | +7.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
6 Metals GLD · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.1 Fair Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 83% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank gold purchases rebounded strongly in Q2.
- H1 total gold demand remained firm despite high prices.
- High positive real yields increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding metals.
- Q2 gold ETF outflows show that investment demand is not uniformly strong.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | proxy | 400.96 | 101 | +0.1 · Fair | +6.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; GLD is a gold-led proxy for a heterogeneous metals class that also contains silver, platinum, base metals, and mining equities.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: World Gold Council · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED
7 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 100 Valuation -0.1 Fair Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.7% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 94% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A 4.7% broad-bond yield to maturity provides visible carry.
- Current Treasury yields provide a transparent discount-rate anchor.
- Intermediate duration creates price sensitivity if justified Treasury yields rise.
- The asset class mixes Treasury, TIPS, investment-grade and high-yield exposures with different spread risks.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.21 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +4.7% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: Vanguard · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED
8 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 97 Valuation -0.4 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 75% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Positive underlying earnings growth supports property cash-flow value.
- Current valuations are supported by diversified listed-property exposure rather than a single subsector.
- The current cash yield is below the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Current AFFO yield, NAV discount and cap-rate spread are not consistently available across the supplied class, widening uncertainty.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 96.38 | 97 | -0.4 · Somewhat expensive | +6.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Missing inputs: Current AFFO yield; Current NAV premium/discount; Current cap-rate spread
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; REIT fair-value dispersion is widened because primary AFFO/NAV/cap-rate anchors are incomplete.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: Vanguard · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED
9 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 94 Valuation -1.0 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -6.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Income yield provides some offset to the full valuation multiple.
- Australia remains a profitable, dividend-oriented equity market within the supplied proxy.
- The Australia-led proxy trades at a high earnings and book multiple.
- The proxy does not fully capture Singapore and New Zealand economics.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | proxy | 29.95 | 94 | -1.0 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; EWA is an Australia-led proxy for the broader developed-Pacific class and does not fully represent Singapore or New Zealand.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: BlackRock iShares
10 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 95 Valuation -1.3 Expensive Fair-value gap -5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 92% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Strong consensus earnings growth raises current economic output.
- Q2 earnings surprises have been unusually strong, supporting forward fundamentals.
- Shiller CAPE is near the top of its 30-year historical distribution.
- A 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle limits the valuation margin of safety.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 770.56 | 95 | -1.3 · Expensive | +6.0% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; Shiller historical-date mode uses the current/revised workbook rather than true publication-vintage data.; Current CAPE/rate regime is outside support of the upstream conditional return-calibration model; no calibrated Treasury-beat probability is published.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Sources: Robert J. Shiller / ShillerData · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED
11 Energy USO · Median fair value 89 Valuation -1.6 Expensive Fair-value gap -11.0% vs market 100 Expected edge -1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- EIA still forecasts elevated near-term Brent prices under constrained Hormuz transit.
- Oil scarcity economics remain supportive while shipping constraints persist.
- EIA's 2027 Brent forecast is materially below the current disruption-driven near-term regime.
- High projected gas inventories and a lower Henry Hub forecast weigh on the gas component.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | proxy | 127.61 | 89 | -1.6 · Expensive | +2.5% |
Weighted multi-anchor current-value scenario ensemble with KDE-smoothed display density; scenarios are economic-value estimates, not calibrated probabilities.
Limitations: Fair-value and expected-return distributions are model scenario distributions, not calibrated price probabilities.; USO is a crude-oil proxy for a class that also contains natural gas and producer equities; component economics differ materially.; Upstream historical base rate is auditable, but no conditional calibrated Treasury-beat probability passed the publication gate; the base rate is not mirrored as a current probability.
Valuation instruments 11
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A low-teens portfolio P/E provides a meaningful relative valuation discount.
- Moderate price-to-book valuation supports current economic value.
- The valuation discount may reflect lower profitability, policy, and governance uncertainty not captured by raw multiples.
- The representative dividend yield remains below the Treasury hurdle.
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Double-digit portfolio earnings growth supports current value.
- ROE near 17% provides a quality anchor for the portfolio multiple.
- The representative VWO benchmark includes China and therefore differs from the ex-China weighting used elsewhere in the broader universe.
- Forward-fundamental characteristics are not true point-in-time historical valuation series.
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Bitcoin traded below Glassnode's True Market Mean cost-basis reference at the latest available on-chain observation.
- Sub-1.0 short-term-holder MVRV indicated depressed holder economics at the latest available observation.
- Crypto fair value is highly model-dependent and lacks a universally accepted intrinsic-value framework.
- Positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of non-cash-flow assets.
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Double-digit portfolio earnings growth supports current value.
- The current P/E remains moderate relative to U.S. large caps.
- Profitability is moderate, limiting the case for a large premium multiple.
- Current portfolio characteristics are not a complete point-in-time historical valuation series.
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A near-4% trailing distribution yield supports total-return economics.
- Portfolio valuation remains within a defensible developed-market range.
- The P/E has risen to a full developed-market level, reducing the prior valuation discount.
- Currency and policy-rate sensitivity can alter justified multiples even when local fundamentals hold.
Metals
GLD · Gold
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Central-bank gold purchases rebounded strongly in Q2.
- H1 total gold demand remained firm despite high prices.
- High positive real yields increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding metals.
- Q2 gold ETF outflows show that investment demand is not uniformly strong.
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- A 4.7% broad-bond yield to maturity provides visible carry.
- Current Treasury yields provide a transparent discount-rate anchor.
- Intermediate duration creates price sensitivity if justified Treasury yields rise.
- The asset class mixes Treasury, TIPS, investment-grade and high-yield exposures with different spread risks.
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Positive underlying earnings growth supports property cash-flow value.
- Current valuations are supported by diversified listed-property exposure rather than a single subsector.
- The current cash yield is below the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Current AFFO yield, NAV discount and cap-rate spread are not consistently available across the supplied class, widening uncertainty.
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Income yield provides some offset to the full valuation multiple.
- Australia remains a profitable, dividend-oriented equity market within the supplied proxy.
- The Australia-led proxy trades at a high earnings and book multiple.
- The proxy does not fully capture Singapore and New Zealand economics.
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- Strong consensus earnings growth raises current economic output.
- Q2 earnings surprises have been unusually strong, supporting forward fundamentals.
- Shiller CAPE is near the top of its 30-year historical distribution.
- A 4.04% one-year Treasury hurdle limits the valuation margin of safety.
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
- EIA still forecasts elevated near-term Brent prices under constrained Hormuz transit.
- Oil scarcity economics remain supportive while shipping constraints persist.
- EIA's 2027 Brent forecast is materially below the current disruption-driven near-term regime.
- High projected gas inventories and a lower Henry Hub forecast weigh on the gas component.
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.