Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 66.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 92.9
- Upside to median
- -7.2%
- Last close
- $3,657.20
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
54/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.1%
- P75
- +13.1%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -11.1%
- P10
- -22.1%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry; official-sector demand offsets a high real-yield headwind, with an 18-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -8.5%
Inflation-linked drift less partial real-price normalisation over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- -3.3%
- Basis
- direct
The 1-year Treasury offers a higher modeled return than gold with far lower uncertainty.
Instruments