Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $88.26
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.5%
- P75
- +17.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.8%
- P10
- -13.5%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (~2.4%) plus buybacks and ~4% earnings growth with no material valuation convergence, with a 16-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Income plus governance-driven ROE improvement at a stable multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year USD-unhedged return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.