Metals
Today’s price sits at the 70.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 89.8
- Upside to median
- -10.3%
- Last close
- $361.65
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; structural official demand offset by partial convergence toward median fair value and a high real-yield opportunity cost, with dispersion scaled to gold volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
Real-price drift near inflation less gradual valuation convergence; wide dispersion.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- -3.4%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median falls short of the 1-year Treasury; the Treasury offers a higher expected return with far lower uncertainty.